Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 21/09, 20:30

Prediction: FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Livorno

Team pages: FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · Livorno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

FC Guidonia Montecelio 19371.26

Livorno1

1X2

41% 30% 28%

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Draw Livorno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLLWLWDD

Livorno 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWDWLW

Head-to-head

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 2–1 Livorno (3 last)

FC Guidonia Montecelio 19370-2Livorno
Livorno0-1FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
Livorno2-3FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1504 · Livorno 1548

	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	Draw	Livorno
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Livorno (rating 1504 vs 1548).
H2H favours FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	Livorno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.5	0.8 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.39 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +3’	2.15	3.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:53 +8’	2.39	2.93	3.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 2–0–1 Livorno

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 Italy Serie C Group B	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	0-2 HT 0-0	Livorno
07/09/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Livorno	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
18/12/24 Italy Serie D Cup	Livorno	2-3 HT 0-1	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	5	4	1	0	9	2	13
2	AC Reggiana	5	3	2	0	11	5	11
3	Ravenna	5	3	2	0	8	2	11
4	Livorno	5	3	1	1	6	5	10
5	Torres	6	3	1	2	8	8	10
6	Grosseto	5	2	3	0	7	4	9
7	Forli	6	2	3	1	12	10	9
8	Atalanta U23	5	3	0	2	7	7	9
9	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	5	2	2	1	7	4	8
10	Gubbio	5	2	1	2	9	9	7
11	Campobasso	5	2	1	2	7	7	7
12	Perugia	5	2	1	2	5	9	7
13	ASD Pineto Calcio	5	1	3	1	4	4	6
14	Pescara	5	1	2	2	7	9	5
15	US Latina Calcio	5	1	2	2	5	7	5
16	FC Vado	5	1	1	3	5	7	4
17	AS Ostia Mare	5	1	0	4	5	8	3
18	US Pianese	5	0	2	3	1	5	2
19	Sambenedettese	5	0	1	4	6	10	1
20	Vis Pesaro	5	0	1	4	5	12	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	Livorno
Atalanta U23	1-2 L	1-0 W
Gubbio	3-0 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Livorno (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

DDLLLWLWDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
05/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
30/08	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
22/08	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
26/04	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	2-3	6	1	L
18/04	Ascoli Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
12/04	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
04/04	Ternana Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/03	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-2	5	1	D

Livorno

LLWLWWDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	3-2	6	3	W
12/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
06/09	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
29/08	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
24/08	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
26/04	Pontedera Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
12/04	Arezzo Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
03/04	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-0	0	5	W
28/03	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	0-3	1-3	0	9	L
21/03	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Livorno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win (41%). Probabilities: FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 41%, draw 30%, Livorno 28%.

How many goals are expected in FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Livorno?

The model expects 2.26 goals (FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1.26 · Livorno 1), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Livorno?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.