Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 27/09, 14:30
Prediction: Ravenna vs Gubbio
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Ravenna1.96
Gubbio0.54
1X2
Ravenna
Draw
Gubbio
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Ravenna
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Gubbio
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ravenna
1–2–3
Gubbio
(6 last)
- Gubbio0-2Ravenna
- Ravenna1-1Gubbio
- Gubbio3-1Ravenna
- Ravenna1-2Gubbio
- Ravenna3-3Gubbio
- Ravenna0-2Gubbio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ravenna 1592 · Gubbio 1503
| Ravenna | Draw | Gubbio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 21% | 8% |
| Market | 72% | 19% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ravenna (rating 1592 vs 1503).
- H2H favours Gubbio: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ravenna | Gubbio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.2 | 1.2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.4 | 1.2 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ravenna 1–2–3 Gubbio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Italy Serie C Group B | Gubbio | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Ravenna |
| 22/11/25 Italy Serie C Group B | Ravenna | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Gubbio |
| 07/03/21 Italy Serie C Group B | Gubbio | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Ravenna |
| 11/11/20 Italy Serie C Group B | Ravenna | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Gubbio |
| 24/11/19 Italy Serie C Group B | Ravenna | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Gubbio |
| 29/12/18 Italy Serie C Group B | Ravenna | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Gubbio |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | AC Reggiana | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Grosseto | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Livorno | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Torres | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Forli | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 9 |
| 9 | Atalanta U23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| 10 | Campobasso | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 11 | Pescara | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| 12 | ASD Pineto Calcio | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 13 | Gubbio | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 14 | Perugia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 7 |
| 15 | AS Ostia Mare | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 16 | US Latina Calcio | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 17 | FC Vado | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 4 |
| 18 | US Pianese | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 | Sambenedettese | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 2 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ravenna | Gubbio |
|---|---|---|
| AS Ostia Mare | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Pescara | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| US Latina Calcio | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| AC Reggiana | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| ASD Pineto Calcio | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Ravenna (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ravenna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/09 | AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Perugia Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Pescara Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 24/08 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Pontedera Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 04/04 | ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/03 | Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Gubbio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Pescara Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B |
2-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Torres Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 03/04 | Livorno Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ravenna vs Gubbio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ravenna win (71%). Probabilities: Ravenna 71%, draw 20%, Gubbio 9%.
How many goals are expected in Ravenna vs Gubbio?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Ravenna 1.96 · Gubbio 0.54), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ravenna vs Gubbio?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.