Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 27/09, 17:30

Prediction: Vis Pesaro vs FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Team pages: Vis Pesaro · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Vis Pesaro1.05

FC Guidonia Montecelio 19371.42

1X2

27% 29% 44%

Vis Pesaro Draw FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Vis Pesaro 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDLLLL

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLWDDD

Head-to-head

Vis Pesaro 1–1–0 FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (2 last)

FC Guidonia Montecelio 19370-0Vis Pesaro
Vis Pesaro2-1FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vis Pesaro 1405 · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1506

	Vis Pesaro	Draw	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
Our model	27%	29%	44%
Market	27%	29%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (rating 1405 vs 1506).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vis Pesaro	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.5	2.1 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.4	3.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.10

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:24 +1’	3.40	3.10	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vis Pesaro 1–1–0 FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Italy Serie C Group B	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	0-0 HT 0-0	Vis Pesaro
15/11/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Vis Pesaro	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	6	5	1	0	12	3	16
2	Ravenna	6	4	2	0	10	2	14
3	AC Reggiana	6	4	2	0	12	5	14
4	Grosseto	6	3	3	0	9	4	12
5	Livorno	6	3	2	1	7	6	11
6	Torres	6	3	1	2	8	8	10
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
8	Forli	6	2	3	1	12	10	9
9	Atalanta U23	6	3	0	3	7	9	9
10	Campobasso	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
11	Pescara	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
12	ASD Pineto Calcio	6	1	4	1	6	6	7
13	Gubbio	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
14	Perugia	6	2	1	3	5	11	7
15	AS Ostia Mare	6	2	0	4	7	8	6
16	US Latina Calcio	6	1	2	3	5	8	5
17	FC Vado	6	1	1	4	5	8	4
18	US Pianese	6	0	3	3	2	6	3
19	Sambenedettese	6	0	2	4	7	11	2
20	Vis Pesaro	6	0	1	5	6	15	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vis Pesaro	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
AC Reggiana	1-4 L	1-1 D
AC Carpi	3-0 W	2-3 L
Ascoli	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vis Pesaro

LWLLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	1-3	2	2	L
16/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	0-3	1-4	8	5	L
12/09	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-2	0	5	L
05/09	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
30/08	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
26/04	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	2-3	5	6	L
18/04	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
12/04	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	3-0	3	1	W
04/04	Ascoli Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-2	0	4	L

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

DLLLWLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
16/09	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
05/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
30/08	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
22/08	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
26/04	AC Carpi Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	2-3	6	1	L
18/04	Ascoli Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
12/04	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
04/04	Ternana Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-1	4	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vis Pesaro vs FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win (44%). Probabilities: Vis Pesaro 27%, draw 29%, FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 44%.

How many goals are expected in Vis Pesaro vs FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Vis Pesaro 1.05 · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1.42), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vis Pesaro vs FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.