Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 26/09, 20:30

Prediction: Sambenedettese vs Campobasso

Team pages: Sambenedettese · Campobasso

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Sambenedettese1.11

Campobasso1.14

1X2

34% 31% 35%

Sambenedettese Draw Campobasso

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sambenedettese 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDWWDLLLLD

Campobasso 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLLWDD

Head-to-head

Sambenedettese 2–1–3 Campobasso (6 last)

Sambenedettese0-1Campobasso
Campobasso1-1Sambenedettese
Sambenedettese0-1Campobasso
Campobasso1-0Sambenedettese
Sambenedettese2-1Campobasso
Campobasso0-1Sambenedettese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sambenedettese 1486 · Campobasso 1550

	Sambenedettese	Draw	Campobasso
Our model	34%	31%	35%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Campobasso (rating 1486 vs 1550).
H2H favours Campobasso: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sambenedettese	Campobasso
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.5	3.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:10 +7’	2.60	3.00	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sambenedettese 2–1–3 Campobasso

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Italy Serie C Group B	Sambenedettese	0-1 HT 0-1	Campobasso
07/11/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Campobasso	1-1 HT 0-0	Sambenedettese
14/04/24 Italy Serie D	Sambenedettese	0-1 HT 0-1	Campobasso
03/12/23 Italy Serie D	Campobasso	1-0 HT 0-0	Sambenedettese
17/01/16 Italy Serie D	Sambenedettese	2-1	Campobasso
16/09/15 Italy Serie D	Campobasso	0-1	Sambenedettese

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	6	5	1	0	12	3	16
2	Ravenna	6	4	2	0	10	2	14
3	AC Reggiana	6	4	2	0	12	5	14
4	Grosseto	6	3	3	0	9	4	12
5	Livorno	6	3	2	1	7	6	11
6	Torres	6	3	1	2	8	8	10
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
8	Forli	6	2	3	1	12	10	9
9	Atalanta U23	6	3	0	3	7	9	9
10	Campobasso	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
11	Pescara	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
12	ASD Pineto Calcio	6	1	4	1	6	6	7
13	Gubbio	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
14	Perugia	6	2	1	3	5	11	7
15	AS Ostia Mare	6	2	0	4	7	8	6
16	US Latina Calcio	6	1	2	3	5	8	5
17	FC Vado	6	1	1	4	5	8	4
18	US Pianese	6	0	3	3	2	6	3
19	Sambenedettese	6	0	2	4	7	11	2
20	Vis Pesaro	6	0	1	5	6	15	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sambenedettese	Campobasso
US Pianese	1-1 D	2-0 W
ASD Pineto Calcio	1-2 L	2-2 D
Spezia	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Campobasso (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sambenedettese

DDWWDLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
16/09	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	2-3	10	6	L
12/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
06/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
29/08	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
23/08	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
26/04	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	3-2	5	6	W
18/04	Pontedera Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-1	6	2	W
04/04	Arezzo Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
29/03	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	5	7	D

Campobasso

WDWWWLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-2	9	3	D
16/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-2	8	4	D
12/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
05/09	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-4	7	6	L
29/08	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
23/08	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
26/04	Ascoli Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
18/04	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/04	AC Bra Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
04/04	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sambenedettese vs Campobasso?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Campobasso win (35%). Probabilities: Sambenedettese 34%, draw 31%, Campobasso 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sambenedettese vs Campobasso?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Sambenedettese 1.11 · Campobasso 1.14), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sambenedettese vs Campobasso?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.