Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 26/09, 17:30

Prediction: Livorno vs US Pianese

Team pages: Livorno · US Pianese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Livorno1.38

US Pianese0.73

1X2

52% 29% 19%

Livorno Draw US Pianese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Livorno 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDWLWD

US Pianese 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLDLDLD

Head-to-head

Livorno 0–3–3 US Pianese (6 last)

Livorno1-2US Pianese
US Pianese2-1Livorno
Livorno1-1US Pianese
US Pianese1-1Livorno
US Pianese3-1Livorno
Livorno2-2US Pianese

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Livorno 1531 · US Pianese 1485

	Livorno	Draw	US Pianese
Our model	51%	30%	19%
Market	53%	28%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Livorno (rating 1531 vs 1485).
H2H favours US Pianese: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Livorno	US Pianese
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	0.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 2.3	2.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.25

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +2’	1.70	3.25	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Livorno 0–3–3 US Pianese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Italy Serie C Group B	Livorno	1-2 HT 0-2	US Pianese
03/10/25 Italy Serie C Group B	US Pianese	2-1 HT 1-1	Livorno
10/03/24 Italy Serie D	Livorno	1-1	US Pianese
15/11/23 Italy Serie D	US Pianese	1-1	Livorno
14/05/23 Italy Serie D	US Pianese	3-1	Livorno
02/04/23 Italy Serie D	Livorno	2-2 HT 2-0	US Pianese

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	6	5	1	0	12	3	16
2	Ravenna	6	4	2	0	10	2	14
3	AC Reggiana	6	4	2	0	12	5	14
4	Grosseto	6	3	3	0	9	4	12
5	Livorno	6	3	2	1	7	6	11
6	Torres	6	3	1	2	8	8	10
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
8	Forli	6	2	3	1	12	10	9
9	Atalanta U23	6	3	0	3	7	9	9
10	Campobasso	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
11	Pescara	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
12	ASD Pineto Calcio	6	1	4	1	6	6	7
13	Gubbio	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
14	Perugia	6	2	1	3	5	11	7
15	AS Ostia Mare	6	2	0	4	7	8	6
16	US Latina Calcio	6	1	2	3	5	8	5
17	FC Vado	6	1	1	4	5	8	4
18	US Pianese	6	0	3	3	2	6	3
19	Sambenedettese	6	0	2	4	7	11	2
20	Vis Pesaro	6	0	1	5	6	15	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Livorno	US Pianese
FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	1-1 D	0-1 L
FC Vado	3-2 W	0-0 D
Torres	2-1 W	1-2 L
Gubbio	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Livorno (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Livorno

LWLWWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
16/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	3-2	6	3	W
12/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
06/09	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
29/08	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
24/08	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	3	0	W
26/04	Pontedera Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
12/04	Arezzo Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	0	3	L
03/04	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-0	0	5	W
28/03	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	0-3	1-3	0	9	L

US Pianese

LDDWLDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
16/09	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
12/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
05/09	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
28/08	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
23/08	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	1	2	L
26/04	Ternana Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	3-1	8	1	W
18/04	Juventus U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
11/04	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
04/04	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Livorno vs US Pianese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Livorno win (52%). Probabilities: Livorno 52%, draw 29%, US Pianese 19%.

How many goals are expected in Livorno vs US Pianese?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Livorno 1.38 · US Pianese 0.73), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Livorno vs US Pianese?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.