Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 18/10, 12:30

Prediction: Campobasso vs Perugia

Team pages: Campobasso · Perugia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Campobasso1.28

Perugia1.13

1X2

39% 29% 32%

Campobasso Draw Perugia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Campobasso 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDDWDL

Perugia 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DWDWLLLWWL

Head-to-head

Campobasso 3–1 Perugia (4 last)

Perugia0-1Campobasso
Campobasso1-0Perugia
Campobasso2-1Perugia
Perugia2-1Campobasso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Campobasso 1524 · Perugia 1465

	Campobasso	Draw	Perugia
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Campobasso (rating 1524 vs 1465).
H2H favours Campobasso: 3-0-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Campobasso	Perugia
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.2	2.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.31
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Pinn 3.21
2	2.88 → 2.75▼	Pinn 3.00 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:35 +6’	2.25	3.10	2.88
10:54 +26’	2.25	3.20▲	2.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:12 +3’	2.19	3.20	3.03
09:26 +51’	2.31▲	3.21▲	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Campobasso 3–0–1 Perugia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Italy Serie C Group B	Perugia	0-1 HT 0-1	Campobasso
13/12/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Campobasso	1-0 HT 1-0	Perugia
23/04/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Campobasso	2-1 HT 0-0	Perugia
09/12/24 Italy Serie C Group B	Perugia	2-1 HT 0-0	Campobasso

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	9	8	1	0	17	4	25
2	Ravenna	9	6	2	1	16	5	20
3	Grosseto	10	5	4	1	21	13	19
4	Livorno	10	4	4	2	15	14	16
5	Torres	9	4	3	2	11	10	15
6	AC Reggiana	8	4	2	2	12	7	14
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	9	3	4	2	11	8	13
8	Perugia	9	4	1	4	9	14	13
9	Campobasso	9	3	3	3	13	14	12
10	Pescara	9	3	3	3	11	12	12
11	FC Vado	9	3	2	4	8	8	11
12	Forli	9	2	5	2	14	13	11
13	US Latina Calcio	9	2	4	3	9	10	10
14	AS Ostia Mare	9	2	3	4	9	10	9
15	Atalanta U23	8	3	0	5	8	13	9
16	US Pianese	9	1	4	4	6	10	7
17	ASD Pineto Calcio	8	1	4	3	6	11	7
18	Gubbio	9	2	1	6	10	18	7
19	Sambenedettese	9	1	3	5	12	15	6
20	Vis Pesaro	8	1	1	6	10	19	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Campobasso	Perugia
Ravenna	1-3 L	0-3 L
ASD Pineto Calcio	2-2 D	2-1 W
Grosseto	2-2 D	0-2 L
FC Vado	1-0 W	0-2 L
Gubbio	2-4 L	3-1 W
Spezia	0-1 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Campobasso (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Campobasso

WWLLWDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
04/10	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
26/09	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
20/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-2	9	3	D
16/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-2	8	4	D
12/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
05/09	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-4	7	6	L
29/08	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
23/08	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
26/04	Ascoli Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	2	2	W

Perugia

DWDWLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
03/10	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
27/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
20/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	9	8	L
16/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
13/09	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-3	2	3	L
06/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
30/08	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
23/08	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
26/04	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-1	5	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Campobasso vs Perugia?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Campobasso win (39%). Probabilities: Campobasso 39%, draw 29%, Perugia 32%.

How many goals are expected in Campobasso vs Perugia?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Campobasso 1.28 · Perugia 1.13), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Campobasso vs Perugia?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.