Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 24/10, 14:30

Prediction: Sambenedettese vs Livorno

Team pages: Sambenedettese · Livorno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Sambenedettese1.31

Livorno1.34

1X2

35% 28% 37%

Sambenedettese Draw Livorno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sambenedettese 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLDLWDD

Livorno 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDWLDD

Head-to-head

Sambenedettese 0–1–2 Livorno (3 last)

Sambenedettese0-0Livorno
Livorno2-1Sambenedettese
Sambenedettese2-3Livorno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sambenedettese 1462 · Livorno 1513

	Sambenedettese	Draw	Livorno
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Livorno (rating 1462 vs 1513).
H2H favours Livorno: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sambenedettese	Livorno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.20

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +8’	2.55	3.20	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sambenedettese 0–1–2 Livorno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Italy Serie C Group B	Sambenedettese	0-0 HT 0-0	Livorno
18/10/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Livorno	2-1 HT 0-0	Sambenedettese
14/05/25 Italy Serie D	Sambenedettese	2-3	Livorno

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	10	9	1	0	18	4	28
2	Ravenna	10	6	2	2	16	6	20
3	Grosseto	10	5	4	1	21	13	19
4	AC Reggiana	9	5	2	2	14	7	17
5	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	4	4	2	14	10	16
6	Livorno	10	4	4	2	15	14	16
7	Perugia	10	5	1	4	14	15	16
8	Pescara	10	4	3	3	13	12	15
9	Torres	10	4	3	3	11	12	15
10	US Latina Calcio	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
11	FC Vado	10	3	3	4	10	10	12
12	Atalanta U23	9	4	0	5	10	13	12
13	Campobasso	10	3	3	4	14	19	12
14	Forli	10	2	5	3	16	16	11
15	AS Ostia Mare	10	2	3	5	9	12	9
16	US Pianese	10	1	5	4	6	10	8
17	ASD Pineto Calcio	9	1	5	3	6	11	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	1	4	5	14	17	7
19	Gubbio	10	2	1	7	10	20	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	1	1	7	10	20	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sambenedettese	Livorno
FC Vado	2-2 D	3-2 W
Grosseto	3-1 W	4-4 D
US Pianese	1-1 D	3-2 W
Atalanta U23	2-3 L	1-0 W
ASD Pineto Calcio	1-2 L	0-0 D
Spezia	1-2 L	0-2 L
Torres	0-1 L	2-1 W
Forli	2-2 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Livorno (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sambenedettese

DLLLLDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
11/10	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
03/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-1	3	9	W
26/09	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-2	11	4	L
21/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
16/09	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	2-3	10	6	L
12/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
06/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-2	1	3	L
29/08	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
23/08	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-2	3	4	D

Livorno

WDWLWDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	2-2	4-4	4	5	D
11/10	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
03/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
26/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-2	5	4	W
21/09	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
16/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	3-2	6	3	W
12/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
06/09	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
29/08	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	4	9	D
24/08	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sambenedettese vs Livorno?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Livorno win (37%). Probabilities: Sambenedettese 35%, draw 28%, Livorno 37%.

How many goals are expected in Sambenedettese vs Livorno?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Sambenedettese 1.31 · Livorno 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sambenedettese vs Livorno?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.