Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 24/10, 14:30
Prediction: Spezia vs US Latina Calcio
Team pages: Spezia · US Latina Calcio
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
Spezia1.69
US Latina Calcio0.5
1X2
Spezia
Draw
US Latina Calcio
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
1-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
Spezia
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
US Latina Calcio
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Spezia
3–3–0
US Latina Calcio
(6 last)
- Spezia3-2US Latina Calcio
- US Latina Calcio0-0Spezia
- US Latina Calcio0-0Spezia
- Spezia2-1US Latina Calcio
- US Latina Calcio1-2Spezia
- Spezia1-1US Latina Calcio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spezia 1625 · US Latina Calcio 1514
| Spezia | Draw | US Latina Calcio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 25% | 10% |
| Market | 67% | 22% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spezia (rating 1625 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Spezia: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Spezia | US Latina Calcio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.4 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.1 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 2.8 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 3.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spezia 3–3–0 US Latina Calcio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/17 Italy Serie B | Spezia | 3-2 HT 2-0 | US Latina Calcio |
| 04/09/16 Italy Serie B | US Latina Calcio | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Spezia |
| 30/04/16 Italy Serie B | US Latina Calcio | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Spezia |
| 12/12/15 Italy Serie B | Spezia | 2-1 HT 1-1 | US Latina Calcio |
| 21/03/15 Italy Serie B | US Latina Calcio | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Spezia |
| 28/10/14 Italy Serie B | Spezia | 1-1 HT 0-1 | US Latina Calcio |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 19 |
| 4 | AC Reggiana | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 16 |
| 6 | Livorno | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 16 |
| 7 | Perugia | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
| 8 | Pescara | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 15 |
| 9 | Torres | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| 10 | US Latina Calcio | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| 11 | FC Vado | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| 12 | Atalanta U23 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 12 |
| 13 | Campobasso | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 12 |
| 14 | Forli | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 11 |
| 15 | AS Ostia Mare | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| 16 | US Pianese | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 8 |
| 17 | ASD Pineto Calcio | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 8 |
| 18 | Sambenedettese | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | 7 |
| 19 | Gubbio | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 7 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 20 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Spezia | US Latina Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| Ravenna | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Gubbio | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| AC Reggiana | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Vis Pesaro | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Sambenedettese | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Spezia (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spezia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 10/10 | Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 04/10 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 27/09 | Pescara Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 21/09 | Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/09 | Perugia Italy Serie C Group B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Livorno Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 29/08 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
US Latina Calcio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 14/10 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 04/10 | AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 16/09 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Forli Italy Serie C Group B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 23/08 | ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spezia vs US Latina Calcio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Spezia win (66%). Probabilities: Spezia 66%, draw 23%, US Latina Calcio 10%.
How many goals are expected in Spezia vs US Latina Calcio?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Spezia 1.69 · US Latina Calcio 0.5), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs US Latina Calcio?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.