Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 25/10, 14:30

Prediction: Grosseto vs AC Reggiana

Team pages: Grosseto · AC Reggiana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Grosseto1.39

AC Reggiana1.61

1X2

32% 27% 41%

Grosseto Draw AC Reggiana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Grosseto 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDWWLWD

AC Reggiana 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWLLWL

Head-to-head

Grosseto 0–2–2 AC Reggiana (4 last)

AC Reggiana3-1Grosseto
Grosseto0-0AC Reggiana
AC Reggiana1-0Grosseto
Grosseto0-0AC Reggiana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Grosseto 1526 · AC Reggiana 1520

	Grosseto	Draw	AC Reggiana
Our model	32%	26%	42%
Market	31%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AC Reggiana: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Grosseto	AC Reggiana
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.30

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.92
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.38 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:09 +15’	2.88	3.30	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:15	2.59	3.10	2.56
09:38 +40’	2.71▲	3.17▲	2.54▼
10:46 +37’	2.92▲	3.17	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Grosseto 0–2–2 AC Reggiana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/22 Italy Serie C Group B	AC Reggiana	3-1 HT 2-0	Grosseto
16/10/21 Italy Serie C Group B	Grosseto	0-0 HT 0-0	AC Reggiana
24/01/15 Italy Serie C Group B	AC Reggiana	1-0 HT 1-0	Grosseto
13/09/14 Italy Serie C Group B	Grosseto	0-0 HT 0-0	AC Reggiana

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	10	9	1	0	18	4	28
2	Ravenna	10	6	2	2	16	6	20
3	Grosseto	10	5	4	1	21	13	19
4	AC Reggiana	10	5	2	3	14	9	17
5	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	10	4	4	2	14	10	16
6	Livorno	10	4	4	2	15	14	16
7	Perugia	10	5	1	4	14	15	16
8	Pescara	10	4	3	3	13	12	15
9	Torres	10	4	3	3	11	12	15
10	US Latina Calcio	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
11	FC Vado	10	3	3	4	10	10	12
12	Atalanta U23	9	4	0	5	10	13	12
13	Campobasso	10	3	3	4	14	19	12
14	Forli	10	2	5	3	16	16	11
15	ASD Pineto Calcio	10	2	5	3	8	11	11
16	AS Ostia Mare	10	2	3	5	9	12	9
17	US Pianese	10	1	5	4	6	10	8
18	Sambenedettese	10	1	4	5	14	17	7
19	Gubbio	10	2	1	7	10	20	7
20	Vis Pesaro	9	1	1	7	10	20	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Grosseto	AC Reggiana
Vis Pesaro	3-2 W	4-1 W
ASD Pineto Calcio	4-0 W	0-2 L
Perugia	2-0 W	0-1 L
Torres	2-0 W	2-0 W
Spezia	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Grosseto (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Grosseto

DWWDDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	2-2	4-4	1	5	D
10/10	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
03/10	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	1-3	8	9	L
26/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	3-0	4-0	1	5	W
20/09	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
16/09	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-2	2	4	D
12/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
06/09	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
29/08	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-1	10	1	W
23/08	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	4	6	D

AC Reggiana

DWWDWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
17/10	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-0	7	3	W
04/10	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
27/09	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
20/09	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
16/09	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	3-0	4-1	4	5	W
12/09	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
06/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	3-1	3-1	6	6	W
30/08	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
24/08	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Grosseto vs AC Reggiana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AC Reggiana win (41%). Probabilities: Grosseto 32%, draw 27%, AC Reggiana 41%.

How many goals are expected in Grosseto vs AC Reggiana?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Grosseto 1.39 · AC Reggiana 1.61), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Grosseto vs AC Reggiana?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.