Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 08/11, 14:30

Prediction: Campobasso vs Livorno

Team pages: Campobasso · Livorno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Campobasso1.63

Livorno1.47

1X2

40% 27% 33%

Campobasso Draw Livorno

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Campobasso 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDWDLLWW

Livorno 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLDDLW

Head-to-head

Campobasso 0–1–1 Livorno (2 last)

Campobasso1-2Livorno
Livorno0-0Campobasso

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Campobasso 1510 · Livorno 1504

	Campobasso	Draw	Livorno
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Campobasso	Livorno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.20

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.25▼	Pinn 2.40 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.63 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.92

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +10’	2.35	3.20	2.63
08:18 +1’	2.25▼	3.20	2.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:10 +10’	2.40	3.20	2.92

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Campobasso 0–1–1 Livorno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/02/26 Italy Serie C Group B	Campobasso	1-2 HT 1-2	Livorno
27/09/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Livorno	0-0 HT 0-0	Campobasso

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	13	11	2	0	25	6	35
2	Ravenna	12	8	2	2	22	7	26
3	Grosseto	12	6	5	1	25	15	23
4	AC Reggiana	13	6	2	5	19	15	20
5	Pescara	12	5	4	3	15	13	19
6	Livorno	12	5	4	3	17	16	19
7	Torres	12	5	4	3	13	12	19
8	Campobasso	12	5	3	4	18	20	18
9	Atalanta U23	13	6	0	7	18	21	18
10	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	12	4	5	3	15	13	17
11	Perugia	12	5	2	5	16	18	17
12	FC Vado	12	4	4	4	14	13	16
13	US Latina Calcio	12	3	6	3	12	12	15
14	ASD Pineto Calcio	12	3	5	4	10	13	14
15	Forli	12	2	6	4	16	18	12
16	Sambenedettese	12	2	4	6	16	20	10
17	US Pianese	12	1	7	4	7	11	10
18	AS Ostia Mare	13	2	3	8	10	19	9
19	Gubbio	12	2	2	8	10	21	8
20	Vis Pesaro	12	1	2	9	11	26	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Campobasso	Livorno
Forli	2-0 W	1-1 D
Atalanta U23	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sambenedettese	2-1 W	1-2 L
Grosseto	2-2 D	4-4 D
FC Vado	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Campobasso (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Campobasso

LWDDWDLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
24/10	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
18/10	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-5	4	6	L
11/10	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	1-3	4	2	L
04/10	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
26/09	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
20/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-2	9	3	D
16/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-2	8	4	D
12/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
05/09	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-4	7	6	L

Livorno

WLWDWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
24/10	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	1-2	2	2	L
16/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	2-2	4-4	4	5	D
11/10	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
03/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
26/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-2	5	4	W
21/09	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
16/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	3-2	6	3	W
12/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
06/09	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Campobasso vs Livorno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Campobasso win (40%). Probabilities: Campobasso 40%, draw 27%, Livorno 33%.

How many goals are expected in Campobasso vs Livorno?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Campobasso 1.63 · Livorno 1.47), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Campobasso vs Livorno?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.