Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 14/11, 17:30

Prediction: Gubbio vs Grosseto

Team pages: Gubbio · Grosseto

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Gubbio1.23

Grosseto1.41

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Gubbio Draw Grosseto

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Gubbio 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLLLDL

Grosseto 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWDWDL

Head-to-head

Gubbio 1–3–0 Grosseto (4 last)

Gubbio0-0Grosseto
Grosseto1-1Gubbio
Grosseto2-3Gubbio
Gubbio1-1Grosseto

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gubbio 1422 · Grosseto 1519

	Gubbio	Draw	Grosseto
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grosseto (rating 1422 vs 1519).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gubbio	Grosseto
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.5	2.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	1.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +5’	2.88	3.10	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gubbio 1–3–0 Grosseto

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/22 Italy Serie C Group B	Gubbio	0-0 HT 0-0	Grosseto
25/09/21 Italy Serie C Group B	Grosseto	1-1 HT 0-0	Gubbio
09/05/15 Italy Serie C Group B	Grosseto	2-3 HT 1-1	Gubbio
06/01/15 Italy Serie C Group B	Gubbio	1-1 HT 0-0	Grosseto

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	13	11	2	0	25	6	35
2	Ravenna	13	9	2	2	25	8	29
3	Grosseto	13	6	5	2	26	18	23
4	Pescara	13	6	4	3	18	14	22
5	Torres	13	6	4	3	15	12	22
6	AC Reggiana	13	6	2	5	19	15	20
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	13	5	5	3	17	14	20
8	Livorno	13	5	5	3	18	17	20
9	Campobasso	13	5	4	4	19	21	19
10	Atalanta U23	13	6	0	7	18	21	18
11	Perugia	13	5	2	6	18	21	17
12	ASD Pineto Calcio	13	4	5	4	11	13	17
13	FC Vado	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
14	US Latina Calcio	13	3	6	4	12	14	15
15	Forli	13	3	6	4	17	18	15
16	US Pianese	13	2	7	4	10	13	13
17	Sambenedettese	13	2	4	7	17	22	10
18	AS Ostia Mare	13	2	3	8	10	19	9
19	Gubbio	13	2	2	9	10	22	8
20	Vis Pesaro	13	1	2	10	11	27	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gubbio	Grosseto
Vis Pesaro	0-0 D	3-2 W
ASD Pineto Calcio	0-1 L	4-0 W
Perugia	1-3 L	2-0 W
Pescara	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Grosseto (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gubbio

WDLLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
01/11	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
23/10	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
18/10	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/10	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
03/10	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
27/09	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
20/09	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
16/09	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
12/09	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	3-1	1	5	W

Grosseto

DDWWLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-3	6	4	L
31/10	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	2-2	6	2	D
25/10	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
16/10	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	2-2	4-4	1	5	D
10/10	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
03/10	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	1-3	8	9	L
26/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	3-0	4-0	1	5	W
20/09	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	4	8	W
16/09	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-2	2	4	D
12/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gubbio vs Grosseto?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Grosseto win (40%). Probabilities: Gubbio 31%, draw 29%, Grosseto 40%.

How many goals are expected in Gubbio vs Grosseto?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Gubbio 1.23 · Grosseto 1.41), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gubbio vs Grosseto?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.