Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 16/11, 20:45

Prediction: Perugia vs Torres

Team pages: Perugia · Torres

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Perugia1.48

Torres1.1

1X2

45% 28% 27%

Perugia Draw Torres

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Perugia 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWLDL

Torres 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWLWDW

Head-to-head

Perugia 1–3–2 Torres (6 last)

Perugia1-1Torres
Torres1-1Perugia
Perugia1-0Torres
Torres2-1Perugia
Torres1-0Perugia
Perugia1-1Torres

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Perugia 1470 · Torres 1540

	Perugia	Draw	Torres
Our model	45%	28%	27%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torres (rating 1470 vs 1540).
H2H favours Torres: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Perugia	Torres
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	3.1 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.6	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.25

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +12’	2.00	3.25	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Perugia 1–3–2 Torres

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/03/26 Italy Serie C Group B	Perugia	1-1 HT 1-0	Torres
15/11/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Torres	1-1 HT 1-0	Perugia
11/03/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Perugia	1-0 HT 1-0	Torres
30/10/24 Italy Serie C Group B	Torres	2-1 HT 1-0	Perugia
18/02/24 Italy Serie C Group B	Torres	1-0 HT 0-0	Perugia
15/10/23 Italy Serie C Group B	Perugia	1-1 HT 0-0	Torres

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	13	11	2	0	25	6	35
2	Ravenna	13	9	2	2	25	8	29
3	Grosseto	13	6	5	2	26	18	23
4	Pescara	13	6	4	3	18	14	22
5	Torres	13	6	4	3	15	12	22
6	AC Reggiana	13	6	2	5	19	15	20
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	13	5	5	3	17	14	20
8	Livorno	13	5	5	3	18	17	20
9	Campobasso	13	5	4	4	19	21	19
10	Atalanta U23	13	6	0	7	18	21	18
11	Perugia	13	5	2	6	18	21	17
12	ASD Pineto Calcio	13	4	5	4	11	13	17
13	FC Vado	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
14	US Latina Calcio	13	3	6	4	12	14	15
15	Forli	13	3	6	4	17	18	15
16	US Pianese	13	2	7	4	10	13	13
17	Sambenedettese	13	2	4	7	17	22	10
18	AS Ostia Mare	13	2	3	8	10	19	9
19	Gubbio	13	2	2	9	10	22	8
20	Vis Pesaro	13	1	2	10	11	27	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Perugia	Torres
US Pianese	2-3 L	2-1 W
FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	1-1 D	2-0 W
Pescara	1-2 L	0-0 D
Campobasso	5-1 W	1-1 D
FC Vado	0-2 L	0-0 D
AC Reggiana	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Torres (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Perugia

LLLWWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	2-3	3	8	L
31/10	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
23/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
18/10	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	5-1	3	6	W
11/10	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	8	3	L
03/10	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
27/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
20/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	9	8	L
16/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
13/09	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-3	2	3	L

Torres

WWDDDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
31/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
25/10	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
17/10	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
11/10	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
04/10	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
26/09	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
19/09	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
16/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
13/09	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	3-2	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Perugia vs Torres?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Perugia win (45%). Probabilities: Perugia 45%, draw 28%, Torres 27%.

How many goals are expected in Perugia vs Torres?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Perugia 1.48 · Torres 1.1), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Perugia vs Torres?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.