Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs AS Ostia Mare

Team pages: FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 · AS Ostia Mare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

FC Guidonia Montecelio 19371.64

AS Ostia Mare0.86

1X2

55% 27% 19%

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Draw AS Ostia Mare

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDLWDWLDW

AS Ostia Mare 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDLLLL

Head-to-head

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 4–1–1 AS Ostia Mare (6 last)

AS Ostia Mare0-2FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
FC Guidonia Montecelio 19374-1AS Ostia Mare
FC Guidonia Montecelio 19373-0AS Ostia Mare
AS Ostia Mare0-0FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
FC Guidonia Montecelio 19372-1AS Ostia Mare
AS Ostia Mare3-2FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1511 · AS Ostia Mare 1442

	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	Draw	AS Ostia Mare
Our model	55%	27%	18%
Market	55%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (rating 1511 vs 1442).
H2H favours FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	AS Ostia Mare
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4	2.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.40

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61
X	3.30 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40
2	4.33 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +3’	1.73	3.30	4.33
17:08 +2’	1.61▼	3.40▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 4–1–1 AS Ostia Mare

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/05/19 Italy Serie D	AS Ostia Mare	0-2	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
22/12/18 Italy Serie D	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	4-1 HT 1-1	AS Ostia Mare
08/04/18 Italy Serie D	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	3-0	AS Ostia Mare
19/11/17 Italy Serie D	AS Ostia Mare	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
22/01/17 Italy Serie D	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	2-1	AS Ostia Mare
18/09/16 Italy Serie D	AS Ostia Mare	3-2	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	13	11	2	0	25	6	35
2	Ravenna	13	9	2	2	25	8	29
3	Grosseto	13	6	5	2	26	18	23
4	Pescara	13	6	4	3	18	14	22
5	Torres	13	6	4	3	15	12	22
6	AC Reggiana	13	6	2	5	19	15	20
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	13	5	5	3	17	14	20
8	Livorno	13	5	5	3	18	17	20
9	Campobasso	13	5	4	4	19	21	19
10	Atalanta U23	13	6	0	7	18	21	18
11	Perugia	13	5	2	6	18	21	17
12	ASD Pineto Calcio	13	4	5	4	11	13	17
13	FC Vado	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
14	US Latina Calcio	13	3	6	4	12	14	15
15	Forli	13	3	6	4	17	18	15
16	US Pianese	13	2	7	4	10	13	13
17	Sambenedettese	13	2	4	7	17	22	10
18	AS Ostia Mare	13	2	3	8	10	19	9
19	Gubbio	13	2	2	9	10	22	8
20	Vis Pesaro	13	1	2	10	11	27	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	AS Ostia Mare
Torres	0-2 L	2-3 L
Forli	3-2 W	1-1 D
Pescara	1-1 D	0-2 L
Livorno	1-1 D	0-1 L
US Latina Calcio	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

DDDLWDWLDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	2-1	8	0	W
31/10	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
25/10	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
17/10	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
12/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
04/10	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
27/09	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
21/09	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
16/09	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	2	2	D

AS Ostia Mare

LLWDDDLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	0-4	10	3	L
01/11	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
23/10	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	7	4	L
18/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
10/10	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
04/10	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
27/09	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
20/09	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-0	8	3	W
16/09	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
13/09	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs AS Ostia Mare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win (55%). Probabilities: FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 55%, draw 27%, AS Ostia Mare 19%.

How many goals are expected in FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs AS Ostia Mare?

The model expects 2.49 goals (FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1.64 · AS Ostia Mare 0.86), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs AS Ostia Mare?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.