Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Spezia vs FC Vado

Team pages: Spezia · FC Vado

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Spezia2.1

FC Vado0.62

1X2

72% 19% 10%

Spezia Draw FC Vado

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Spezia 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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FC Vado 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Spezia 1–0 FC Vado (1 last)

Spezia3-0FC Vado

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Spezia 1625 · FC Vado 1482

	Spezia	Draw	FC Vado
Our model	71%	20%	9%
Market	72%	18%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spezia (rating 1625 vs 1482).
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Spezia	FC Vado
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 0.4	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.5	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.80

2 (+1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:59 +10’	1.25	5.00	9.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Spezia 1–0–0 FC Vado

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/09/26 Italy Serie C Cup	Spezia	3-0 HT 0-0	FC Vado

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	13	11	2	0	25	6	35
2	Ravenna	13	9	2	2	25	8	29
3	Grosseto	13	6	5	2	26	18	23
4	Pescara	13	6	4	3	18	14	22
5	Torres	13	6	4	3	15	12	22
6	AC Reggiana	13	6	2	5	19	15	20
7	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	13	5	5	3	17	14	20
8	Livorno	13	5	5	3	18	17	20
9	Campobasso	13	5	4	4	19	21	19
10	Atalanta U23	13	6	0	7	18	21	18
11	Perugia	13	5	2	6	18	21	17
12	ASD Pineto Calcio	13	4	5	4	11	13	17
13	FC Vado	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
14	US Latina Calcio	13	3	6	4	12	14	15
15	Forli	13	3	6	4	17	18	15
16	US Pianese	13	2	7	4	10	13	13
17	Sambenedettese	13	2	4	7	17	22	10
18	AS Ostia Mare	13	2	3	8	10	19	9
19	Gubbio	13	2	2	9	10	22	8
20	Vis Pesaro	13	1	2	10	11	27	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Spezia	FC Vado
AS Ostia Mare	4-0 W	2-1 W
Ravenna	1-0 W	1-3 L
Pescara	2-1 W	0-1 L
Perugia	3-0 W	2-0 W
Livorno	2-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Spezia (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Spezia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	4-0	7	3	W
01/11	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-1	6	1	W
24/10	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
18/10	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
10/10	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
04/10	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
27/09	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
21/09	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-1	3	2	W
16/09	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-0	5	6	W
12/09	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-0	3	5	W

FC Vado

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
31/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	2-1	2-2	1	2	D
23/10	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
17/10	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
11/10	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
03/10	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
26/09	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
20/09	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
16/09	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	2-1	2-3	3	3	L
12/09	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Spezia vs FC Vado?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Spezia win (72%). Probabilities: Spezia 72%, draw 19%, FC Vado 10%.

How many goals are expected in Spezia vs FC Vado?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Spezia 2.1 · FC Vado 0.62), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Spezia vs FC Vado?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.