Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 09/11, 20:30

Prediction: ASD Pineto Calcio vs Vis Pesaro

Team pages: ASD Pineto Calcio · Vis Pesaro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

ASD Pineto Calcio1.71

Vis Pesaro0.97

1X2

54% 26% 20%

ASD Pineto Calcio Draw Vis Pesaro

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

ASD Pineto Calcio 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLLWDWWL

Vis Pesaro 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLD

Head-to-head

ASD Pineto Calcio 1–5–0 Vis Pesaro (6 last)

Vis Pesaro0-2ASD Pineto Calcio
ASD Pineto Calcio1-1Vis Pesaro
ASD Pineto Calcio1-1Vis Pesaro
Vis Pesaro1-1ASD Pineto Calcio
ASD Pineto Calcio1-1Vis Pesaro
Vis Pesaro1-1ASD Pineto Calcio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ASD Pineto Calcio 1510 · Vis Pesaro 1404

	ASD Pineto Calcio	Draw	Vis Pesaro
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASD Pineto Calcio (rating 1510 vs 1404).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	ASD Pineto Calcio	Vis Pesaro
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.79 ★
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.59
2	4.50 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:32 +5’	1.65	3.40	4.50
18:38 +7’	1.65	3.50▲	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:14 +4’	1.83	3.30	4.12
10:19 +5’	1.70▼	3.71▲	4.66▲
13:29 +2’	1.62▼	3.91▲	5.04▲
17:28 +20’	1.63▲	3.86▼	5.03▼
09:00 +22’	1.79▲	3.59▼	4.28▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ASD Pineto Calcio 1–5–0 Vis Pesaro

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/26 Italy Serie C Group B	Vis Pesaro	0-2 HT 0-2	ASD Pineto Calcio
22/08/25 Italy Serie C Group B	ASD Pineto Calcio	1-1 HT 1-1	Vis Pesaro
21/02/25 Italy Serie C Group B	ASD Pineto Calcio	1-1 HT 1-1	Vis Pesaro
13/10/24 Italy Serie C Group B	Vis Pesaro	1-1 HT 1-1	ASD Pineto Calcio
05/03/24 Italy Serie C Group B	ASD Pineto Calcio	1-1 HT 0-1	Vis Pesaro
30/10/23 Italy Serie C Group B	Vis Pesaro	1-1 HT 1-1	ASD Pineto Calcio

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	12	10	2	0	21	6	32
2	Ravenna	12	8	2	2	22	7	26
3	Grosseto	12	6	5	1	25	15	23
4	AC Reggiana	12	6	2	4	16	11	20
5	Pescara	12	5	4	3	15	13	19
6	Livorno	12	5	4	3	17	16	19
7	Torres	12	5	4	3	13	12	19
8	Campobasso	12	5	3	4	18	20	18
9	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	12	4	5	3	15	13	17
10	Perugia	12	5	2	5	16	18	17
11	FC Vado	12	4	4	4	14	13	16
12	US Latina Calcio	12	3	6	3	12	12	15
13	Atalanta U23	12	5	0	7	14	18	15
14	ASD Pineto Calcio	12	3	5	4	10	13	14
15	Forli	12	2	6	4	16	18	12
16	Sambenedettese	12	2	4	6	16	20	10
17	US Pianese	12	1	7	4	7	11	10
18	AS Ostia Mare	12	2	3	7	10	15	9
19	Gubbio	12	2	2	8	10	21	8
20	Vis Pesaro	12	1	2	9	11	26	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ASD Pineto Calcio	Vis Pesaro
Ravenna	1-2 L	0-4 L
Gubbio	1-0 W	0-0 D
AC Reggiana	2-0 W	1-4 L
FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	0-1 L	2-1 W
Grosseto	0-4 L	2-3 L
Forli	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Pineto Calcio (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ASD Pineto Calcio

WDDLLWDWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	1-2	7	7	L
23/10	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
20/10	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/10	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/10	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
04/10	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
26/09	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	0-3	0-4	3	5	L
20/09	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	2-2	0	3	D
16/09	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
12/09	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-1	5	7	W

Vis Pesaro

LLLLWLLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
28/10	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
24/10	Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B	0-3	0-4	3	8	L
18/10	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
10/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
27/09	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B	2-1	2-1	2	1	W
21/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-2	1-3	2	2	L
16/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	0-3	1-4	8	5	L
12/09	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-2	0	5	L
05/09	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ASD Pineto Calcio vs Vis Pesaro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a ASD Pineto Calcio win (54%). Probabilities: ASD Pineto Calcio 54%, draw 26%, Vis Pesaro 20%.

How many goals are expected in ASD Pineto Calcio vs Vis Pesaro?

The model expects 2.68 goals (ASD Pineto Calcio 1.71 · Vis Pesaro 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in ASD Pineto Calcio vs Vis Pesaro?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.