Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 08/11, 17:30

Prediction: Sambenedettese vs FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Team pages: Sambenedettese · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Sambenedettese1.21

FC Guidonia Montecelio 19371.28

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Sambenedettese Draw FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sambenedettese 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLWDDWL

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWDWLD

Head-to-head

Sambenedettese 1–1 FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (2 last)

FC Guidonia Montecelio 19370-1Sambenedettese
Sambenedettese0-1FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sambenedettese 1481 · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1492

	Sambenedettese	Draw	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
Our model	34%	30%	37%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sambenedettese	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	0.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.10

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.89 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.14
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.46

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:18 +4’	2.63	3.10	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:16 +2’	2.67	2.95	2.64
10:10 +12’	2.72▲	3.01▲	2.69▲
22:09 +30’	2.89▲	3.14▲	2.46▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sambenedettese 1–0–1 FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Italy Serie C Group B	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	0-1 HT 0-0	Sambenedettese
02/11/25 Italy Serie C Group B	Sambenedettese	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	12	10	2	0	21	6	32
2	Ravenna	12	8	2	2	22	7	26
3	Grosseto	12	6	5	1	25	15	23
4	AC Reggiana	12	6	2	4	16	11	20
5	Pescara	12	5	4	3	15	13	19
6	Livorno	12	5	4	3	17	16	19
7	Torres	12	5	4	3	13	12	19
8	Campobasso	12	5	3	4	18	20	18
9	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	12	4	5	3	15	13	17
10	Perugia	12	5	2	5	16	18	17
11	FC Vado	12	4	4	4	14	13	16
12	US Latina Calcio	12	3	6	3	12	12	15
13	Atalanta U23	12	5	0	7	14	18	15
14	ASD Pineto Calcio	12	3	5	4	10	13	14
15	Forli	12	2	6	4	16	18	12
16	Sambenedettese	12	2	4	6	16	20	10
17	US Pianese	12	1	7	4	7	11	10
18	AS Ostia Mare	12	2	3	7	10	15	9
19	Gubbio	12	2	2	8	10	21	8
20	Vis Pesaro	12	1	2	9	11	26	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sambenedettese	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937
AC Reggiana	0-2 L	1-1 D
Livorno	2-1 W	1-1 D
US Latina Calcio	1-1 D	1-1 D
US Pianese	1-1 D	1-0 W
ASD Pineto Calcio	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sambenedettese

LLLDLWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
24/10	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
17/10	FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	2-2	3	6	D
11/10	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
03/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-1	3	9	W
26/09	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-2	11	4	L
21/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
16/09	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	2-3	10	6	L
12/09	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
06/09	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-2	1	3	L

FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937

WDDDLWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
25/10	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
17/10	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
12/10	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
04/10	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
27/09	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
21/09	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
16/09	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
05/09	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	1-0	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sambenedettese vs FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 win (37%). Probabilities: Sambenedettese 34%, draw 29%, FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 37%.

How many goals are expected in Sambenedettese vs FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Sambenedettese 1.21 · FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 1.28), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sambenedettese vs FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.