Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 17/10, 14:30
Prediction: US Pianese vs ASD Pineto Calcio
Team pages: US Pianese · ASD Pineto Calcio
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.13Total
US Pianese1.14
ASD Pineto Calcio0.99
1X2
US Pianese
Draw
ASD Pineto Calcio
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
US Pianese
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
ASD Pineto Calcio
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
US Pianese
3–1–1
ASD Pineto Calcio
(5 last)
- US Pianese1-0ASD Pineto Calcio
- ASD Pineto Calcio1-1US Pianese
- ASD Pineto Calcio0-1US Pianese
- US Pianese4-0ASD Pineto Calcio
- ASD Pineto Calcio1-0US Pianese
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · US Pianese 1496 · ASD Pineto Calcio 1422
| US Pianese | Draw | ASD Pineto Calcio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| Market | 39% | 30% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours US Pianese (rating 1496 vs 1422).
- H2H favours US Pianese: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| US Pianese | ASD Pineto Calcio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.5 | 1.4 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · US Pianese 3–1–1 ASD Pineto Calcio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Italy Serie C Group B | US Pianese | 1-0 HT 0-0 | ASD Pineto Calcio |
| 01/11/25 Italy Serie C Group B | ASD Pineto Calcio | 1-1 HT 1-1 | US Pianese |
| 04/05/25 Italy Serie C Play-Offs | ASD Pineto Calcio | 0-1 HT 0-0 | US Pianese |
| 12/04/25 Italy Serie C Group B | US Pianese | 4-0 HT 2-0 | ASD Pineto Calcio |
| 29/11/24 Italy Serie C Group B | ASD Pineto Calcio | 1-0 HT 1-0 | US Pianese |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 4 | 25 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 20 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 19 |
| 4 | Livorno | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 16 |
| 5 | Torres | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 15 |
| 6 | AC Reggiana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 14 |
| 7 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | Perugia | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 13 |
| 9 | Campobasso | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
| 10 | Pescara | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| 11 | FC Vado | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| 12 | Forli | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| 13 | US Latina Calcio | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| 14 | AS Ostia Mare | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| 15 | Atalanta U23 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 9 |
| 16 | US Pianese | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 7 |
| 17 | ASD Pineto Calcio | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| 18 | Gubbio | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 7 |
| 19 | Sambenedettese | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 6 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | US Pianese | ASD Pineto Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| Livorno | 2-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Sambenedettese | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Grosseto | 0-0 D | 0-4 L |
| FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Campobasso | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: ASD Pineto Calcio (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
US Pianese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/10 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Livorno Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/09 | Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 16/09 | Torres Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 23/08 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Ternana Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
ASD Pineto Calcio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 26/09 | Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 16/09 | Forli Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | Perugia Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Livorno Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 23/08 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 18/04 | Arezzo Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-4 | 0 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in US Pianese vs ASD Pineto Calcio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a US Pianese win (39%). Probabilities: US Pianese 39%, draw 31%, ASD Pineto Calcio 30%.
How many goals are expected in US Pianese vs ASD Pineto Calcio?
The model expects 2.13 goals (US Pianese 1.14 · ASD Pineto Calcio 0.99), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in US Pianese vs ASD Pineto Calcio?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.