Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 08/11, 17:30
Prediction: US Pianese vs Perugia
Team pages: US Pianese · Perugia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
US Pianese1.08
Perugia1.19
1X2
US Pianese
Draw
Perugia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
US Pianese
1-6-3 (W-D-L)
Perugia
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
US Pianese
2–2–0
Perugia
(4 last)
- US Pianese2-1Perugia
- Perugia0-1US Pianese
- Perugia1-1US Pianese
- US Pianese3-3Perugia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · US Pianese 1493 · Perugia 1482
| US Pianese | Draw | Perugia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 31% | 37% |
| Market | 33% | 29% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours US Pianese: 2-2-0.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| US Pianese | Perugia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5.4 | 2.2 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 4.2 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · US Pianese 2–2–0 Perugia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/26 Italy Serie C Group B | US Pianese | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Perugia |
| 27/09/25 Italy Serie C Group B | Perugia | 0-1 HT 0-0 | US Pianese |
| 22/12/24 Italy Serie C Group B | Perugia | 1-1 HT 1-1 | US Pianese |
| 24/08/24 Italy Serie C Group B | US Pianese | 3-3 HT 3-1 | Perugia |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spezia | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 6 | 32 |
| 2 | Ravenna | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | Grosseto | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 25 | 15 | 23 |
| 4 | AC Reggiana | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | Pescara | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 19 |
| 6 | Livorno | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 7 | Torres | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 19 |
| 8 | Campobasso | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 20 | 18 |
| 9 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 17 |
| 10 | Perugia | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 18 | 17 |
| 11 | FC Vado | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 16 |
| 12 | US Latina Calcio | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| 13 | Atalanta U23 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 18 | 15 |
| 14 | ASD Pineto Calcio | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 14 |
| 15 | Forli | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 12 |
| 16 | Sambenedettese | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 10 |
| 17 | US Pianese | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 10 |
| 18 | AS Ostia Mare | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 9 |
| 19 | Gubbio | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 8 |
| 20 | Vis Pesaro | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | US Pianese | Perugia |
|---|---|---|
| ASD Pineto Calcio | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Ravenna | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Grosseto | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
US Pianese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/10 | Forli Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/10 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/09 | Livorno Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 21/09 | Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 16/09 | Torres Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
Perugia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 23/10 | Pescara Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 18/10 | Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 11/10 | FC Vado Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 03/10 | Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 20/09 | Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 8 | L |
| 16/09 | Spezia Italy Serie C Group B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Ravenna Italy Serie C Group B |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 06/09 | ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in US Pianese vs Perugia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Perugia win (38%). Probabilities: US Pianese 32%, draw 30%, Perugia 38%.
How many goals are expected in US Pianese vs Perugia?
The model expects 2.27 goals (US Pianese 1.08 · Perugia 1.19), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in US Pianese vs Perugia?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.