Football · Italy Serie C Group B · 07/11, 17:30

Prediction: FC Vado vs Ravenna

Team pages: FC Vado · Ravenna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

FC Vado0.94

Ravenna1.66

1X2

20% 26% 53%

FC Vado Draw Ravenna

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Vado 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Ravenna 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Vado 1497 · Ravenna 1565

	FC Vado	Draw	Ravenna
Our model	20%	27%	53%
Market	21%	26%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ravenna (rating 1497 vs 1565).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Vado	Ravenna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.8 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.6	2.4 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.50

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:05 +15’	4.33	3.50	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Italy Serie C Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Spezia	12	10	2	0	21	6	32
2	Ravenna	12	8	2	2	22	7	26
3	Grosseto	12	6	5	1	25	15	23
4	AC Reggiana	12	6	2	4	16	11	20
5	Pescara	12	5	4	3	15	13	19
6	Livorno	12	5	4	3	17	16	19
7	Torres	12	5	4	3	13	12	19
8	Campobasso	12	5	3	4	18	20	18
9	FC Guidonia Montecelio 1937	12	4	5	3	15	13	17
10	Perugia	12	5	2	5	16	18	17
11	FC Vado	12	4	4	4	14	13	16
12	US Latina Calcio	12	3	6	3	12	12	15
13	Atalanta U23	12	5	0	7	14	18	15
14	ASD Pineto Calcio	12	3	5	4	10	13	14
15	Forli	12	2	6	4	16	18	12
16	Sambenedettese	12	2	4	6	16	20	10
17	US Pianese	12	1	7	4	7	11	10
18	AS Ostia Mare	12	2	3	7	10	15	9
19	Gubbio	12	2	2	8	10	21	8
20	Vis Pesaro	12	1	2	9	11	26	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Vado	Ravenna
AS Ostia Mare	2-1 W	1-0 W
Perugia	2-0 W	3-0 W
Pescara	0-1 L	0-0 D
Campobasso	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ravenna (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Vado

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Grosseto Italy Serie C Group B	2-1	2-2	1	2	D
23/10	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
17/10	Sambenedettese Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
11/10	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
03/10	Forli Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
26/09	Torres Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
20/09	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	5	7	L
16/09	Livorno Italy Serie C Group B	2-1	2-3	3	3	L
12/09	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
06/09	AC Reggiana Italy Serie C Group B	1-3	1-3	12	6	L

Ravenna

DWWWWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	ASD Pineto Calcio Italy Serie C Group B	2-1	2-1	9	7	W
24/10	Vis Pesaro Italy Serie C Group B	3-0	4-0	5	8	W
18/10	Spezia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
11/10	Campobasso Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	3-1	4	2	W
04/10	US Pianese Italy Serie C Group B	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
27/09	Gubbio Italy Serie C Group B	2-0	2-0	8	1	W
20/09	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
16/09	AS Ostia Mare Italy Serie C Group B	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
13/09	Perugia Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	3-0	3	3	W
06/09	Pescara Italy Serie C Group B	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Vado vs Ravenna?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ravenna win (53%). Probabilities: FC Vado 20%, draw 26%, Ravenna 53%.

How many goals are expected in FC Vado vs Ravenna?

The model expects 2.59 goals (FC Vado 0.94 · Ravenna 1.66), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Vado vs Ravenna?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.