Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 24/08, 21:00
Prediction: Crotone vs Foggia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Crotone1.54
Foggia1
1X2
Crotone
Draw
Foggia
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Crotone
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Foggia
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Crotone
4–1–1
Foggia
(6 last)
- Crotone3-1Foggia
- Crotone1-0Foggia
- Foggia0-3Crotone
- Crotone3-2Foggia
- Foggia1-1Crotone
- Foggia2-1Crotone
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Crotone 1525 · Foggia 1393
| Crotone | Draw | Foggia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crotone (rating 1525 vs 1393).
- H2H favours Crotone: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Crotone | Foggia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 0.4 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.7 | 1.6 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Crotone 4–1–1 Foggia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Italy Serie C Group C | Crotone | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Foggia |
| 28/10/25 Italy Serie C Cup | Crotone | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Foggia |
| 11/10/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Foggia | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Crotone |
| 14/04/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Crotone | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Foggia |
| 30/11/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Foggia | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Crotone |
| 26/02/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Foggia | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Crotone |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Bari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Audace Cerignola | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Casertana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 | Giugliano | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 | Scafatese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 | Barletta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 8 | AC Savoia 1908 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Sorrento Calcio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | AZ Picerno ASD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Foggia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Catania | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Crotone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Inter Milan U23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Monopoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Team Altamura | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Salernitana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Cosenza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 | Casarano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 | Cavese | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Crotone | Foggia |
|---|---|---|
| Casarano | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Salernitana | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Trapani | 4-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Cavese | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Monopoli | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Crotone (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Crotone
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 13/04 | Catania Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 06/04 | Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 29/03 | Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 15/03 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 08/03 | Trapani Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 05/03 | Cavese Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 01/03 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
Foggia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Siracusa Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 04/04 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 29/03 | Trapani Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 22/03 | Cavese Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 15/03 | Benevento Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 08/03 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 05/03 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 28/02 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Crotone vs Foggia?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Crotone win (49%). Probabilities: Crotone 49%, draw 28%, Foggia 23%.
How many goals are expected in Crotone vs Foggia?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Crotone 1.54 · Foggia 1), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Crotone vs Foggia?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.