Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 29/08, 20:00
Prediction: Monopoli vs Catania
Team pages: Monopoli · Catania
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.08Total
Monopoli0.89
Catania1.19
1X2
Monopoli
Draw
Catania
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Monopoli
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Catania
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Monopoli
0–2–4
Catania
(6 last)
- Monopoli1-2Catania
- Catania4-0Monopoli
- Monopoli1-2Catania
- Catania1-0Monopoli
- Catania1-1Monopoli
- Monopoli0-0Catania
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Monopoli 1432 · Catania 1483
| Monopoli | Draw | Catania | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 32% | 42% |
| Market | 27% | 30% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Catania (rating 1432 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Catania: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monopoli | Catania | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.1 | 2.6 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monopoli 0–2–4 Catania
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/26 Italy Serie C Group C | Monopoli | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Catania |
| 06/09/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Catania | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Monopoli |
| 09/02/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Monopoli | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Catania |
| 29/09/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Catania | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Monopoli |
| 28/01/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Catania | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Monopoli |
| 21/09/23 Italy Serie C Group C | Monopoli | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Catania |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Bari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Audace Cerignola | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | AZ Picerno ASD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Sorrento Calcio | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Inter Milan U23 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Foggia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Team Altamura | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Casertana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | Giugliano | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | Scafatese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | Barletta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 13 | AC Savoia 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Catania | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Salernitana | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Monopoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Cosenza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Casarano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 | Cavese | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | Crotone | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -6 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monopoli | Catania |
|---|---|---|
| Team Altamura | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Potenza | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Atalanta U23 | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| AZ Picerno ASD | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Benevento | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Casertana | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Casarano | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 4 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monopoli
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Foggia Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Trapani Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 29/03 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 23/03 | Benevento Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 15/03 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 09/03 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/03 | Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Catania
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 13/04 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 28/03 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/03 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 15/03 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 09/03 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 05/03 | Benevento Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monopoli vs Catania?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Catania win (42%). Probabilities: Monopoli 27%, draw 31%, Catania 42%.
How many goals are expected in Monopoli vs Catania?
The model expects 2.08 goals (Monopoli 0.89 · Catania 1.19), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Monopoli vs Catania?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.