Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 21/08, 21:00

Prediction: Potenza vs Casarano

Team pages: Potenza · Casarano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Potenza1.43

Casarano1.44

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Potenza Draw Casarano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Potenza 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWDLLL

Casarano 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLWLDL

Head-to-head

Potenza 1–1 Casarano (2 last)

Casarano2-1Potenza
Potenza3-1Casarano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Potenza 1498 · Casarano 1534

	Potenza	Draw	Casarano
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Potenza	Casarano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/33/11%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 3.1	1.9 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.60
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.66 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:38 +1’	2.55	3.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:37 +2’	2.60	3.16	2.66

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Potenza 1–0–1 Casarano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Casarano	2-1 HT 1-0	Potenza
30/11/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Potenza	3-1 HT 2-0	Casarano

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AC Savoia 1908	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sorrento Calcio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Audace Cerignola	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ Picerno ASD	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Foggia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Casertana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Catania	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cavese	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cosenza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crotone	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Giugliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Inter Milan U23	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Potenza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Scafatese	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barletta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Monopoli	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bari	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Casarano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Team Altamura	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Salernitana	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Potenza

LWDDWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Ascoli Coppa Italia	1-1	1-3	3	4	L
26/07	Juve Stabia Club Friendly List	–	0-4	–	–	L
20/05	Ascoli Italy Serie C Play-Offs	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
17/05	Ascoli Italy Serie C Play-Offs	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
13/05	Campobasso Italy Serie C Play-Offs	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
10/05	Campobasso Italy Serie C Play-Offs	3-0	3-0	2	5	W
26/04	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-2	3	1	D
19/04	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
12/04	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
06/04	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	5	2	L

Casarano

WLWWWLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Bari Italy Serie C Cup	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
20/05	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Play-Offs	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
17/05	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Play-Offs	0-1	0-3	3	2	L
13/05	Renate Italy Serie C Play-Offs	2-0	3-0	4	4	W
10/05	Renate Italy Serie C Play-Offs	0-2	0-2	12	5	L
06/05	Cosenza Italy Serie C Play-Offs	1-1	5-1	4	2	W
03/05	Monopoli Italy Serie C Play-Offs	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
26/04	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	4-0	2	2	W
19/04	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
12/04	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Potenza vs Casarano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Potenza win (36%). Probabilities: Potenza 36%, draw 28%, Casarano 36%.

How many goals are expected in Potenza vs Casarano?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Potenza 1.43 · Casarano 1.44), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Potenza vs Casarano?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.