Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 05/09, 21:00

Prediction: Potenza vs Monopoli

Team pages: Potenza · Monopoli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.24Total

Potenza1.24

Monopoli1

1X2

41% 31% 29%

Potenza Draw Monopoli

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Potenza 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWDDWW

Monopoli 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDDLWDLW

Head-to-head

Potenza 0–4–2 Monopoli (6 last)

Potenza1-1Monopoli
Potenza2-2Monopoli
Monopoli2-1Potenza
Monopoli0-0Potenza
Monopoli0-0Potenza
Potenza0-1Monopoli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Potenza 1524 · Monopoli 1480

	Potenza	Draw	Monopoli
Our model	40%	31%	28%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Potenza (rating 1524 vs 1480).
H2H favours Monopoli: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Potenza	Monopoli
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	1.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	1.4 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 10:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.32 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.20 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.25

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:56 +24’	2.15	3.00	3.20
12:55 +11’	2.35▲	3.00	2.90▼
06:37 +7’	2.35	2.90▼	2.90
09:13 +49’	2.20▼	3.00▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:38 +1’	2.59	2.82	2.96
10:28 +1’	2.56▼	2.82	3.01▲
20:44 +1’	2.57▲	2.79▼	3.03▲
22:55 +1’	2.70▲	2.79	2.87▼
23:45	2.53▼	2.79	3.10▲
10:01 +1’	2.32▼	2.94▲	3.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Potenza 0–4–2 Monopoli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/09/26 Italy Serie C Cup	Potenza	1-1 HT 0-1	Monopoli
26/04/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Potenza	2-2 HT 2-1	Monopoli
21/12/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Monopoli	2-1 HT 0-0	Potenza
29/10/25 Italy Serie C Cup	Monopoli	0-0 HT 0-0	Potenza
06/04/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Monopoli	0-0 HT 0-0	Potenza
23/11/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Potenza	0-1 HT 0-0	Monopoli

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	AZ Picerno ASD	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	Sorrento Calcio	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
4	Barletta	2	1	1	0	6	3	4
5	Casertana	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
6	Inter Milan U23	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Team Altamura	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
7	Foggia	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
9	Monopoli	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
10	Audace Cerignola	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
11	Bari	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
12	Cavese	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
13	Casarano	2	1	0	1	5	7	3
14	Giugliano	2	0	1	1	6	7	1
15	Salernitana	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Scafatese	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
17	AC Savoia 1908	2	0	0	2	3	5	0
18	Cosenza	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
19	Catania	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
20	Crotone	2	0	0	2	0	2	-6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Potenza	Monopoli
Casarano	4-1 W	2-1 W
Catania	1-1 D	2-0 W
Trapani	1-2 L	1-1 D
Foggia	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Monopoli (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Potenza

WDLWLWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
21/08	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	4-1	8	4	W
26/04	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-2	3	1	D
19/04	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
12/04	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
06/04	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
28/03	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	3-2	5-2	4	2	W
22/03	Trapani Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
14/03	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
08/03	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	5	6	W

Monopoli

WLWDDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
24/08	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
26/04	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	2-2	3	1	D
19/04	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/04	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
04/04	Trapani Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
29/03	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/03	Benevento Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
15/03	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
09/03	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-1	2	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Potenza vs Monopoli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Potenza win (41%). Probabilities: Potenza 41%, draw 31%, Monopoli 29%.

How many goals are expected in Potenza vs Monopoli?

The model expects 2.24 goals (Potenza 1.24 · Monopoli 1), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Potenza vs Monopoli?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.