Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 12/09, 18:00

Prediction: Sorrento Calcio vs AZ Picerno ASD

Team pages: Sorrento Calcio · AZ Picerno ASD

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Sorrento Calcio1.2

AZ Picerno ASD1.05

1X2

39% 31% 31%

Sorrento Calcio Draw AZ Picerno ASD

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sorrento Calcio 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDDWWW

AZ Picerno ASD 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLDWWLDWWW

Head-to-head

Sorrento Calcio 0–3–3 AZ Picerno ASD (6 last)

AZ Picerno ASD0-0Sorrento Calcio
Sorrento Calcio1-1AZ Picerno ASD
AZ Picerno ASD2-0Sorrento Calcio
Sorrento Calcio1-1AZ Picerno ASD
AZ Picerno ASD2-0Sorrento Calcio
Sorrento Calcio0-2AZ Picerno ASD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sorrento Calcio 1532 · AZ Picerno ASD 1558

	Sorrento Calcio	Draw	AZ Picerno ASD
Our model	38%	31%	30%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AZ Picerno ASD: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sorrento Calcio	AZ Picerno ASD
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.8	2.7 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:19 +4’	2.30	3.00	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sorrento Calcio 0–3–3 AZ Picerno ASD

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Italy Serie C Group C	AZ Picerno ASD	0-0 HT 0-0	Sorrento Calcio
20/12/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	1-1 HT 0-0	AZ Picerno ASD
29/03/25 Italy Serie C Group C	AZ Picerno ASD	2-0 HT 0-0	Sorrento Calcio
16/11/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	1-1 HT 0-0	AZ Picerno ASD
11/08/24 Italy Serie C Cup	AZ Picerno ASD	2-0 HT 0-0	Sorrento Calcio
11/02/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	0-2 HT 0-1	AZ Picerno ASD

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ Picerno ASD	3	3	0	0	9	3	9
2	Potenza	3	3	0	0	7	2	9
3	Sorrento Calcio	3	3	0	0	5	1	9
4	Audace Cerignola	3	2	0	1	6	4	6
5	Bari	3	2	0	1	4	3	6
6	Barletta	3	1	2	0	8	5	5
7	Casertana	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
8	Cavese	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
9	Team Altamura	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
9	Foggia	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
11	Inter Milan U23	3	1	1	1	4	6	4
12	Catania	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
13	AC Savoia 1908	3	1	0	2	5	5	3
14	Monopoli	3	1	0	2	2	2	3
15	Casarano	3	1	0	2	5	8	3
16	Salernitana	3	0	2	1	3	4	2
17	Scafatese	3	0	2	1	5	7	2
18	Giugliano	3	0	1	2	6	9	1
19	Cosenza	3	0	0	3	2	9	0
20	Crotone	3	0	1	2	2	4	-5

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sorrento Calcio

LDLWLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
29/08	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/08	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
26/04	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
12/04	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
06/04	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/03	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	8	9	L
22/03	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/03	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	2-3	2	7	L

AZ Picerno ASD

DLDWWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	4-1	7	6	W
28/08	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
23/08	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	3-2	6	5	W
26/04	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
13/04	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
06/04	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
29/03	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
22/03	Siracusa Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
15/03	Trapani Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-1	5	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sorrento Calcio vs AZ Picerno ASD?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sorrento Calcio win (39%). Probabilities: Sorrento Calcio 39%, draw 31%, AZ Picerno ASD 31%.

How many goals are expected in Sorrento Calcio vs AZ Picerno ASD?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Sorrento Calcio 1.2 · AZ Picerno ASD 1.05), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sorrento Calcio vs AZ Picerno ASD?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.