Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 15/09, 21:00

Prediction: Casarano vs Audace Cerignola

Team pages: Casarano · Audace Cerignola

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Casarano1.68

Audace Cerignola1.46

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Casarano Draw Audace Cerignola

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Casarano 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWLWLW

Audace Cerignola 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLDDWLWW

Head-to-head

Casarano 2–4 Audace Cerignola (6 last)

Audace Cerignola2-1Casarano
Audace Cerignola2-1Casarano
Casarano3-0Audace Cerignola
Audace Cerignola1-0Casarano
Casarano2-0Audace Cerignola
Audace Cerignola5-0Casarano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casarano 1527 · Audace Cerignola 1521

	Casarano	Draw	Audace Cerignola
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	41%	28%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Audace Cerignola: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casarano	Audace Cerignola
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.39 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:05 +3’	2.20	3.20	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:25 +44’	2.39	3.20	2.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Casarano 2–0–4 Audace Cerignola

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Audace Cerignola	2-1 HT 1-1	Casarano
29/10/25 Italy Serie C Cup	Audace Cerignola	2-1 HT 2-0	Casarano
12/10/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Casarano	3-0 HT 0-0	Audace Cerignola
13/02/22 Italy Serie D	Audace Cerignola	1-0 HT 1-0	Casarano
06/10/21 Italy Serie D	Casarano	2-0	Audace Cerignola
02/05/21 Italy Serie D	Audace Cerignola	5-0	Casarano

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sorrento Calcio	4	4	0	0	6	1	12
2	Audace Cerignola	4	3	0	1	10	4	9
3	AZ Picerno ASD	4	3	0	1	9	4	9
4	Bari	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
5	Potenza	4	3	0	1	9	6	9
6	Casertana	4	2	2	0	10	8	8
7	Monopoli	4	2	0	2	3	2	6
8	Casarano	4	2	0	2	8	9	6
9	Barletta	4	1	2	1	9	8	5
10	Salernitana	4	1	2	1	7	6	5
11	Scafatese	4	1	2	1	7	8	5
12	Cavese	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
13	AC Savoia 1908	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
14	Foggia	4	1	1	2	2	4	4
15	Inter Milan U23	4	1	1	2	6	9	4
16	Team Altamura	4	1	1	2	2	6	4
17	Catania	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
18	Giugliano	4	0	1	3	6	13	1
19	Cosenza	4	0	1	3	2	9	1
20	Crotone	4	0	2	2	3	5	-4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casarano	Audace Cerignola
Giugliano	4-3 W	4-0 W
Team Altamura	4-0 W	1-1 D
Crotone	1-2 L	1-3 L
US Latina Calcio	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Casarano (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casarano

DWWWLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
05/09	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
28/08	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	4-3	3	4	W
21/08	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-4	6	4	L
26/04	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	4-0	2	2	W
19/04	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
12/04	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
06/04	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
29/03	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
23/03	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	3	8	D

Audace Cerignola

WLDLDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	4-0	8	6	W
06/09	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
28/08	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
22/08	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
26/04	Benevento Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-2	3	0	D
19/04	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
12/04	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	0-4	1-4	6	3	L
06/04	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
29/03	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-3	2	6	L
22/03	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casarano vs Audace Cerignola?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Casarano win (41%). Probabilities: Casarano 41%, draw 27%, Audace Cerignola 32%.

How many goals are expected in Casarano vs Audace Cerignola?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Casarano 1.68 · Audace Cerignola 1.46), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Casarano vs Audace Cerignola?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.