Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 20/09, 14:30

Prediction: Monopoli vs Crotone

Team pages: Monopoli · Crotone

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.02Total
Monopoli1.13
Crotone0.89
1X2
41% 31% 28%
Monopoli Draw Crotone
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Monopoli 4-3-3 (W-D-L)
WDDLWDLWLW
Crotone 3-3-4 (W-D-L)
DWLWWLLLDD
Head-to-head
Monopoli 1–2–3 Crotone (6 last)
  • Monopoli1-1Crotone
  • Crotone0-1Monopoli
  • Crotone2-0Monopoli
  • Monopoli1-1Crotone
  • Crotone3-1Monopoli
  • Monopoli0-3Crotone
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monopoli 1483 · Crotone 1458
MonopoliDrawCrotone
Our model40%33%27%
Market41%30%29%
Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Crotone: 3-2-1.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

MonopoliCrotone
Goals for / against (FT)0.9 / 0.81.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)0.4 / 0.60.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/40/40%20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)1.2 / 3.61.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.5 / 0.13.7 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Monopoli 123 Crotone

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DateHomeScoreAway
01/03/26
Italy Serie C Group C
Monopoli1-1
HT 0-1
Crotone
18/10/25
Italy Serie C Group C
Crotone0-1
HT 0-0
Monopoli
23/02/25
Italy Serie C Group C
Crotone2-0
HT 1-0
Monopoli
12/10/24
Italy Serie C Group C
Monopoli1-1
HT 0-0
Crotone
21/04/24
Italy Serie C Group C
Crotone3-1
HT 0-1
Monopoli
17/12/23
Italy Serie C Group C
Monopoli0-3
HT 0-2
Crotone

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Sorrento Calcio 4400 6112
2 Audace Cerignola 4301 1049
3 AZ Picerno ASD 4301 949
4 Bari 4301 739
5 Potenza 4301 969
6 Casertana 4220 1088
7 Monopoli 4202 326
8 Casarano 4202 896
9 Barletta 4121 985
10 Salernitana 4121 765
11 Scafatese 4121 785
12 Cavese 4121 455
13 AC Savoia 1908 4112 664
14 Foggia 4112 244
15 Inter Milan U23 4112 694
16 Team Altamura 4112 264
17 Catania 4103 663
18 Giugliano 4013 6131
19 Cosenza 4013 291
20 Crotone 4022 35-4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentMonopoliCrotone
Foggia 1-0 W 0-1 L
Catania 2-0 W 2-0 W
Record vs common 2 W 0 D 0 L 1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Monopoli (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monopoli

WDDLWDLWLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
12/09 Foggia
Italy Serie C Group C
1-0 1-0 26 W
05/09 Potenza
Italy Serie C Group C
0-1 0-1 64 L
29/08 Catania
Italy Serie C Group C
1-0 2-0 32 W
24/08 Team Altamura
Italy Serie C Group C
0-1 0-1 53 L
26/04 Potenza
Italy Serie C Group C
1-2 2-2 31 D
19/04 Foggia
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 1-0 25 W
12/04 Atalanta U23
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 0-2 62 L
04/04 Trapani
Italy Serie C Group C
0-1 1-1 47 D
29/03 AZ Picerno ASD
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 0-0 14 D
23/03 Benevento
Italy Serie C Group C
1-1 2-1 42 W

Crotone

DWLWWLLLDD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
12/09 AC Savoia 1908
Italy Serie C Group C
0-1 1-1 56 D
05/09 Barletta
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 2-2 51 D
29/08 Sorrento Calcio
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 0-1 14 L
24/08 Foggia
Italy Serie C Group C
0-1 0-1 64 L
26/04 US Latina Calcio
Italy Serie C Group C
2-1 2-5 34 L
19/04 Casarano
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 2-1 14 W
13/04 Catania
Italy Serie C Group C
1-0 2-0 43 W
06/04 Giugliano
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 0-1 102 L
29/03 Audace Cerignola
Italy Serie C Group C
0-0 3-1 56 W
22/03 Sorrento Calcio
Italy Serie C Group C
1-1 2-2 03 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monopoli vs Crotone?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monopoli win (41%). Probabilities: Monopoli 41%, draw 31%, Crotone 28%.

How many goals are expected in Monopoli vs Crotone?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Monopoli 1.13 · Crotone 0.89), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Monopoli vs Crotone?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.