Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 19/09, 17:30

Prediction: Audace Cerignola vs Casertana

Team pages: Audace Cerignola · Casertana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Audace Cerignola1.52

Casertana1.32

1X2

40% 28% 31%

Audace Cerignola Draw Casertana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Audace Cerignola 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLDDWLWW

Casertana 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLDDWDW

Head-to-head

Audace Cerignola 1–4–1 Casertana (6 last)

Casertana4-1Audace Cerignola
Audace Cerignola1-1Casertana
Casertana0-1Audace Cerignola
Audace Cerignola0-0Casertana
Casertana0-0Audace Cerignola
Casertana1-1Audace Cerignola

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Audace Cerignola 1520 · Casertana 1550

	Audace Cerignola	Draw	Casertana
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	40%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Audace Cerignola	Casertana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:31 +7’	2.25	3.10	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Audace Cerignola 1–4–1 Casertana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	4-1 HT 4-0	Audace Cerignola
07/12/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Audace Cerignola	1-1 HT 1-0	Casertana
10/02/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	0-1 HT 0-0	Audace Cerignola
29/09/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Audace Cerignola	0-0 HT 0-0	Casertana
11/05/24 Italy Serie C Play-Offs	Casertana	0-0 HT 0-0	Audace Cerignola
07/03/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	1-1 HT 0-0	Audace Cerignola

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sorrento Calcio	4	4	0	0	6	1	12
2	Audace Cerignola	4	3	0	1	10	4	9
3	AZ Picerno ASD	4	3	0	1	9	4	9
4	Bari	4	3	0	1	7	3	9
5	Potenza	4	3	0	1	9	6	9
6	Casertana	4	2	2	0	10	8	8
7	Monopoli	4	2	0	2	3	2	6
8	Casarano	4	2	0	2	8	9	6
9	Barletta	4	1	2	1	9	8	5
10	Salernitana	4	1	2	1	7	6	5
11	Scafatese	4	1	2	1	7	8	5
12	Cavese	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
13	AC Savoia 1908	4	1	1	2	6	6	4
14	Foggia	4	1	1	2	2	4	4
15	Inter Milan U23	4	1	1	2	6	9	4
16	Team Altamura	4	1	1	2	2	6	4
17	Catania	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
18	Giugliano	4	0	1	3	6	13	1
19	Cosenza	4	0	1	3	2	9	1
20	Crotone	4	0	2	2	3	5	-4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Audace Cerignola	Casertana
Giugliano	4-0 W	1-1 D
Cavese	1-3 L	1-0 W
US Latina Calcio	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Audace Cerignola (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Audace Cerignola

WLDLDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	4-0	8	6	W
06/09	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-0	2	4	W
28/08	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
22/08	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
26/04	Benevento Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-2	3	0	D
19/04	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
12/04	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	0-4	1-4	6	3	L
06/04	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
29/03	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-3	2	6	L
22/03	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	8	1	W

Casertana

WWWWLDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-2	4	3	W
06/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
29/08	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-3	9	5	D
26/04	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
19/04	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
12/04	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	4-0	4-1	4	3	W
04/04	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
30/03	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	1	9	W
21/03	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Audace Cerignola vs Casertana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Audace Cerignola win (40%). Probabilities: Audace Cerignola 40%, draw 28%, Casertana 31%.

How many goals are expected in Audace Cerignola vs Casertana?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Audace Cerignola 1.52 · Casertana 1.32), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Audace Cerignola vs Casertana?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.