Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 20/09, 17:30
Prediction: Potenza vs Cavese
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Potenza1.61
Cavese1.01
1X2
Potenza
Draw
Cavese
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Potenza
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Cavese
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Potenza
2–3–1
Cavese
(6 last)
- Potenza2-2Cavese
- Cavese3-0Potenza
- Potenza1-0Cavese
- Potenza2-2Cavese
- Cavese0-0Potenza
- Cavese0-2Potenza
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Potenza 1521 · Cavese 1486
| Potenza | Draw | Cavese | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Potenza: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Potenza | Cavese | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.8 | 2.2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Potenza 2–3–1 Cavese
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Italy Serie C Group C | Potenza | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Cavese |
| 07/11/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Cavese | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Potenza |
| 16/08/25 Italy Serie C Cup | Potenza | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cavese |
| 08/03/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Potenza | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Cavese |
| 26/10/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Cavese | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Potenza |
| 31/03/21 Italy Serie C Group C | Cavese | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Potenza |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sorrento Calcio | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 15 |
| 2 | Casertana | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 11 |
| 3 | Bari | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Potenza | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Audace Cerignola | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | AZ Picerno ASD | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| 7 | Casarano | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| 8 | Monopoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Inter Milan U23 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 10 | Catania | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 6 |
| 11 | Barletta | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 6 |
| 12 | Salernitana | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | Scafatese | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 14 | AC Savoia 1908 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| 15 | Cavese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| 16 | Foggia | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 17 | Giugliano | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 4 |
| 18 | Team Altamura | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| 20 | Crotone | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Potenza | Cavese |
|---|---|---|
| Bari | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Salernitana | 2-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Cosenza | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Sorrento Calcio | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Potenza (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Potenza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Bari Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 11/09 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 19/04 | Catania Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 12/04 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 06/04 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 28/03 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
3-2 | 5-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
Cavese
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 28/08 | Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 21/08 | Bari Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Siracusa Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 13/04 | Benevento Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 08/04 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Potenza vs Cavese?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Potenza win (50%). Probabilities: Potenza 50%, draw 27%, Cavese 23%.
How many goals are expected in Potenza vs Cavese?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Potenza 1.61 · Cavese 1.01), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Potenza vs Cavese?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.