Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 27/09, 12:30

Prediction: Casertana vs Catania

Team pages: Casertana · Catania

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Casertana1.26

Catania1.27

1X2

35% 29% 36%

Casertana Draw Catania

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Casertana 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDDWDWWD

Catania 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLLWLWD

Head-to-head

Casertana 0–4–2 Catania (6 last)

Catania0-0Casertana
Casertana2-2Catania
Catania1-1Casertana
Casertana1-3Catania
Catania0-0Casertana
Casertana0-4Catania

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casertana 1531 · Catania 1459

	Casertana	Draw	Catania
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	35%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Casertana (rating 1531 vs 1459).
H2H favours Catania: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casertana	Catania
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/10/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.2	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +10’	2.55	3.00	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Casertana 0–4–2 Catania

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Catania	0-0 HT 0-0	Casertana
31/10/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	2-2 HT 1-1	Catania
16/02/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Catania	1-1 HT 1-0	Casertana
06/10/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	1-3 HT 1-1	Catania
11/02/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Catania	0-0 HT 0-0	Casertana
01/10/23 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	0-4 HT 0-2	Catania

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sorrento Calcio	6	5	0	1	10	5	15
2	Potenza	6	4	1	1	13	8	13
3	Bari	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
4	Casertana	6	3	3	0	11	8	12
5	Audace Cerignola	6	3	1	2	10	5	10
6	Inter Milan U23	6	3	1	2	11	11	10
7	Casarano	6	3	1	2	10	10	10
8	AZ Picerno ASD	6	3	0	3	12	10	9
9	Salernitana	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
10	Monopoli	6	2	2	2	5	4	8
11	Catania	6	2	1	3	10	8	7
12	Barletta	6	1	4	1	10	9	7
13	Scafatese	6	1	4	1	8	9	7
14	Team Altamura	6	2	1	3	4	8	7
15	AC Savoia 1908	6	1	3	2	7	7	6
16	Foggia	6	1	2	3	4	7	5
17	Cavese	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
18	Giugliano	6	1	1	4	11	16	4
19	Cosenza	6	0	2	4	5	15	2
20	Crotone	6	0	3	3	5	9	-3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casertana	Catania
Inter Milan U23	3-2 W	1-2 L
Scafatese	2-2 D	1-2 L
Barletta	3-3 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Casertana (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casertana

WWLDDWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
15/09	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-2	4	3	W
06/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
29/08	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-3	9	5	D
26/04	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
19/04	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
12/04	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	4-0	4-1	4	3	W
04/04	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	2	3	W

Catania

LLDDLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
15/09	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	3-0	4-2	4	3	W
12/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
07/09	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	4-0	3	4	W
29/08	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
23/08	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	1-2	8	3	L
26/04	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
19/04	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	10	7	D
13/04	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
06/04	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	1-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casertana vs Catania?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Catania win (36%). Probabilities: Casertana 35%, draw 29%, Catania 36%.

How many goals are expected in Casertana vs Catania?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Casertana 1.26 · Catania 1.27), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Casertana vs Catania?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.