Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 27/09, 20:30

Prediction: Casarano vs Monopoli

Team pages: Casarano · Monopoli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Casarano1.34

Monopoli1.06

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Casarano Draw Monopoli

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Casarano 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLWWD

Monopoli 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDLWLWDD

Head-to-head

Casarano 1–2 Monopoli (3 last)

Monopoli0-2Casarano
Monopoli2-1Casarano
Casarano1-3Monopoli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casarano 1528 · Monopoli 1482

	Casarano	Draw	Monopoli
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	42%	29%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Casarano (rating 1528 vs 1482).
H2H favours Monopoli: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casarano	Monopoli
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.1	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.5	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:18 +8’	2.10	3.10	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Casarano 1–0–2 Monopoli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Italy Serie C Play-Offs	Monopoli	0-2 HT 0-2	Casarano
09/03/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Monopoli	2-1 HT 0-1	Casarano
01/11/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Casarano	1-3 HT 1-0	Monopoli

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sorrento Calcio	6	5	0	1	10	5	15
2	Potenza	6	4	1	1	13	8	13
3	Bari	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
4	Casertana	6	3	3	0	11	8	12
5	Audace Cerignola	6	3	1	2	10	5	10
6	Inter Milan U23	6	3	1	2	11	11	10
7	Casarano	6	3	1	2	10	10	10
8	AZ Picerno ASD	6	3	0	3	12	10	9
9	Salernitana	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
10	Monopoli	6	2	2	2	5	4	8
11	Catania	6	2	1	3	10	8	7
12	Barletta	6	1	4	1	10	9	7
13	Scafatese	6	1	4	1	8	9	7
14	Team Altamura	6	2	1	3	4	8	7
15	AC Savoia 1908	6	1	3	2	7	7	6
16	Foggia	6	1	2	3	4	7	5
17	Cavese	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
18	Giugliano	6	1	1	4	11	16	4
19	Cosenza	6	0	2	4	5	15	2
20	Crotone	6	0	3	3	5	9	-3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casarano	Monopoli
Potenza	1-4 L	0-1 L
Team Altamura	4-0 W	0-1 L
Crotone	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Monopoli (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casarano

WWLWLWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
15/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
11/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
05/09	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
28/08	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	4-3	3	4	W
21/08	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-4	6	4	L
26/04	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	4-0	2	2	W
19/04	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
12/04	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
06/04	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-1	3	2	W

Monopoli

DLWDLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
15/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
12/09	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
05/09	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
29/08	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
24/08	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
26/04	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	2-2	3	1	D
19/04	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
12/04	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
04/04	Trapani Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casarano vs Monopoli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Casarano win (42%). Probabilities: Casarano 42%, draw 29%, Monopoli 29%.

How many goals are expected in Casarano vs Monopoli?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Casarano 1.34 · Monopoli 1.06), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Casarano vs Monopoli?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.