Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 27/09, 20:30

Prediction: Foggia vs Sorrento Calcio

Team pages: Foggia · Sorrento Calcio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Foggia1.11

Sorrento Calcio0.95

1X2

38% 31% 30%

Foggia Draw Sorrento Calcio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Foggia 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLWDLLDL

Sorrento Calcio 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Foggia 2–2–2 Sorrento Calcio (6 last)

Sorrento Calcio2-1Foggia
Foggia1-0Sorrento Calcio
Foggia2-1Sorrento Calcio
Sorrento Calcio2-1Foggia
Sorrento Calcio1-1Foggia
Foggia1-1Sorrento Calcio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Foggia 1422 · Sorrento Calcio 1565

	Foggia	Draw	Sorrento Calcio
Our model	38%	33%	30%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sorrento Calcio (rating 1422 vs 1565).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Foggia	Sorrento Calcio
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	2.2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:24 +3’	2.30	3.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Foggia 2–2–2 Sorrento Calcio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	2-1 HT 1-1	Foggia
30/08/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Foggia	1-0 HT 0-0	Sorrento Calcio
09/03/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Foggia	2-1 HT 1-0	Sorrento Calcio
27/10/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	2-1 HT 0-0	Foggia
10/03/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	1-1 HT 0-0	Foggia
04/11/23 Italy Serie C Group C	Foggia	1-1 HT 0-1	Sorrento Calcio

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sorrento Calcio	6	5	0	1	10	5	15
2	Potenza	6	4	1	1	13	8	13
3	Bari	6	4	1	1	9	4	13
4	Casertana	6	3	3	0	11	8	12
5	Audace Cerignola	6	3	1	2	10	5	10
6	Inter Milan U23	6	3	1	2	11	11	10
7	Casarano	6	3	1	2	10	10	10
8	AZ Picerno ASD	6	3	0	3	12	10	9
9	Salernitana	6	2	3	1	9	7	9
10	Monopoli	6	2	2	2	5	4	8
11	Catania	6	2	1	3	10	8	7
12	Barletta	6	1	4	1	10	9	7
13	Scafatese	6	1	4	1	8	9	7
14	Team Altamura	6	2	1	3	4	8	7
15	AC Savoia 1908	6	1	3	2	7	7	6
16	Foggia	6	1	2	3	4	7	5
17	Cavese	6	1	2	3	8	12	5
18	Giugliano	6	1	1	4	11	16	4
19	Cosenza	6	0	2	4	5	15	2
20	Crotone	6	0	3	3	5	9	-3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Foggia	Sorrento Calcio
Salernitana	1-1 D	2-1 W
Crotone	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sorrento Calcio (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Foggia

LDLLWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	2-3	7	3	L
15/09	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
12/09	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	3	6	L
06/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
29/08	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
24/08	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
26/04	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	1-3	9	4	L
19/04	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	1	5	L
12/04	Siracusa Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
04/04	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	3	5	L

Sorrento Calcio

WLDDWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	0	3	L
15/09	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	3-2	6	6	W
12/09	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
05/09	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
29/08	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/08	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
26/04	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
12/04	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
06/04	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Foggia vs Sorrento Calcio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Foggia win (38%). Probabilities: Foggia 38%, draw 31%, Sorrento Calcio 30%.

How many goals are expected in Foggia vs Sorrento Calcio?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Foggia 1.11 · Sorrento Calcio 0.95), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Foggia vs Sorrento Calcio?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.