Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 03/10, 14:30

Prediction: Sorrento Calcio vs Casarano

Team pages: Sorrento Calcio · Casarano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.27Total

Sorrento Calcio1.18

Casarano1.09

1X2

37% 30% 33%

Sorrento Calcio Draw Casarano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sorrento Calcio 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWWWLL

Casarano 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLWWDL

Head-to-head

Sorrento Calcio 2–2–2 Casarano (6 last)

Casarano2-0Sorrento Calcio
Sorrento Calcio3-3Casarano
Sorrento Calcio3-0Casarano
Casarano1-1Sorrento Calcio
Sorrento Calcio2-0Casarano
Casarano1-0Sorrento Calcio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sorrento Calcio 1522 · Casarano 1523

	Sorrento Calcio	Draw	Casarano
Our model	37%	31%	32%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sorrento Calcio	Casarano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +12’	2.38	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sorrento Calcio 2–2–2 Casarano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Casarano	2-0 HT 0-0	Sorrento Calcio
24/09/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	3-3 HT 2-0	Casarano
03/04/22 Italy Serie D	Sorrento Calcio	3-0	Casarano
21/11/21 Italy Serie D	Casarano	1-1	Sorrento Calcio
30/05/21 Italy Serie D	Sorrento Calcio	2-0	Casarano
14/03/21 Italy Serie D	Casarano	1-0 HT 0-0	Sorrento Calcio

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	7	5	1	1	17	9	16
2	Bari	7	5	1	1	10	4	16
3	Sorrento Calcio	7	5	0	2	10	7	15
4	AZ Picerno ASD	7	4	0	3	14	11	12
5	Casertana	7	3	3	1	12	10	12
6	Monopoli	7	3	2	2	6	4	11
7	Audace Cerignola	7	3	1	3	11	7	10
8	Catania	7	3	1	3	12	9	10
9	Scafatese	7	2	4	1	10	9	10
10	Inter Milan U23	6	3	1	2	11	11	10
11	Casarano	7	3	1	3	10	11	10
12	Salernitana	7	2	3	2	10	9	9
13	Foggia	7	2	2	3	6	7	8
14	Cavese	7	2	2	3	12	14	8
15	Barletta	7	1	4	2	11	13	7
16	Team Altamura	7	2	1	4	4	10	7
17	AC Savoia 1908	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
18	Giugliano	6	1	1	4	11	16	4
19	Cosenza	7	0	2	5	5	16	2
20	Crotone	7	1	3	3	7	10	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sorrento Calcio	Casarano
Bari	1-2 L	0-1 L
Giugliano	2-0 W	4-3 W
Crotone	1-0 W	1-2 L
Potenza	0-3 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sorrento Calcio (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sorrento Calcio

LDDWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
19/09	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	0	3	L
15/09	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	3-2	6	6	W
12/09	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
05/09	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
29/08	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/08	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
26/04	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/04	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
12/04	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-3	6	2	L

Casarano

WLWLWLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
15/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
11/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
05/09	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
28/08	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	4-3	3	4	W
21/08	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-4	6	4	L
26/04	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	4-0	2	2	W
19/04	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-2	8	4	L
12/04	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sorrento Calcio vs Casarano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sorrento Calcio win (37%). Probabilities: Sorrento Calcio 37%, draw 30%, Casarano 33%.

How many goals are expected in Sorrento Calcio vs Casarano?

The model expects 2.27 goals (Sorrento Calcio 1.18 · Casarano 1.09), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sorrento Calcio vs Casarano?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.