Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 03/10, 14:30

Prediction: Cavese vs Casertana

Team pages: Cavese · Casertana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Cavese1.25

Casertana1.4

1X2

32% 29% 39%

Cavese Draw Casertana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cavese 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWDDLLW

Casertana 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDWDWWDL

Head-to-head

Cavese 1–5 Casertana (6 last)

Cavese0-1Casertana
Casertana3-1Cavese
Cavese1-0Casertana
Casertana1-0Cavese
Casertana2-1Cavese
Cavese0-1Casertana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cavese 1473 · Casertana 1511

	Cavese	Draw	Casertana
Our model	32%	29%	39%
Market	32%	29%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Casertana: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cavese	Casertana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:30 +5’	2.80	3.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cavese 1–0–5 Casertana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Cavese	0-1 HT 0-0	Casertana
29/11/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	3-1 HT 0-1	Cavese
03/03/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Cavese	1-0 HT 1-0	Casertana
21/10/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	1-0 HT 0-0	Cavese
21/03/21 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	2-1 HT 0-1	Cavese
29/11/20 Italy Serie C Group C	Cavese	0-1 HT 0-0	Casertana

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	7	5	1	1	17	9	16
2	Bari	7	5	1	1	10	4	16
3	Sorrento Calcio	7	5	0	2	10	7	15
4	AZ Picerno ASD	7	4	0	3	14	11	12
5	Casertana	7	3	3	1	12	10	12
6	Monopoli	7	3	2	2	6	4	11
7	Audace Cerignola	7	3	1	3	11	7	10
8	Catania	7	3	1	3	12	9	10
9	Scafatese	7	2	4	1	10	9	10
10	Inter Milan U23	6	3	1	2	11	11	10
11	Casarano	7	3	1	3	10	11	10
12	Salernitana	7	2	3	2	10	9	9
13	Foggia	7	2	2	3	6	7	8
14	Cavese	7	2	2	3	12	14	8
15	Barletta	7	1	4	2	11	13	7
16	Team Altamura	7	2	1	4	4	10	7
17	AC Savoia 1908	7	1	3	3	9	11	6
18	Giugliano	6	1	1	4	11	16	4
19	Cosenza	7	0	2	5	5	16	2
20	Crotone	7	1	3	3	7	10	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cavese	Casertana
AC Savoia 1908	4-2 W	2-1 W
Audace Cerignola	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cavese (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cavese

WDDLWDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	4-2	3	2	W
20/09	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	2-4	4	3	L
15/09	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	2-3	2	6	L
12/09	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
06/09	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
28/08	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
21/08	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-3	8	3	L
26/04	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
19/04	Siracusa Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
13/04	Benevento Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	0	2	W

Casertana

WLDDWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
19/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
15/09	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-2	4	3	W
06/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
29/08	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-3	9	5	D
26/04	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
19/04	US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
12/04	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	4-0	4-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cavese vs Casertana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Casertana win (39%). Probabilities: Cavese 32%, draw 29%, Casertana 39%.

How many goals are expected in Cavese vs Casertana?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Cavese 1.25 · Casertana 1.4), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cavese vs Casertana?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.