Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 03/10, 20:30
Prediction: Catania vs Crotone
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.57Total
Catania1.77
Crotone0.8
1X2
Catania
Draw
Crotone
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Catania
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Crotone
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Catania
1–2–3
Crotone
(6 last)
- Crotone2-0Catania
- Catania2-0Crotone
- Crotone1-0Catania
- Catania0-0Crotone
- Crotone3-2Catania
- Catania1-1Crotone
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Catania 1487 · Crotone 1457
| Catania | Draw | Crotone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 25% | 15% |
| Market | 60% | 25% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Crotone: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Catania | Crotone | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.9 | 1.4 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Catania 1–2–3 Crotone
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/26 Italy Serie C Group C | Crotone | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Catania |
| 05/12/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Catania | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Crotone |
| 17/08/25 Italy Serie C Cup | Crotone | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Catania |
| 23/03/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Catania | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Crotone |
| 10/11/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Crotone | 3-2 HT 3-0 | Catania |
| 18/08/24 Italy Serie C Cup | Catania | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Crotone |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Bari | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Sorrento Calcio | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | AZ Picerno ASD | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Casertana | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Monopoli | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Audace Cerignola | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 10 |
| 8 | Catania | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 10 |
| 9 | Scafatese | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| 10 | Inter Milan U23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| 11 | Casarano | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Salernitana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 9 |
| 13 | Foggia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 14 | Cavese | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 8 |
| 15 | Barletta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 7 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 7 |
| 17 | AC Savoia 1908 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 4 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 2 |
| 20 | Crotone | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Catania | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| Barletta | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Monopoli | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Inter Milan U23 | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Catania
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Barletta Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 15/09 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
3-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 07/09 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 19/04 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 7 | D |
| 13/04 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
Crotone
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 15/09 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Barletta Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 29/08 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Foggia Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | US Latina Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 13/04 | Catania Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Catania vs Crotone?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Catania win (60%). Probabilities: Catania 60%, draw 25%, Crotone 15%.
How many goals are expected in Catania vs Crotone?
The model expects 2.57 goals (Catania 1.77 · Crotone 0.8), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Catania vs Crotone?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.