Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 08/11, 14:30
Prediction: Catania vs Sorrento Calcio
Team pages: Catania · Sorrento Calcio
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.83Total
Catania1.95
Sorrento Calcio0.89
1X2
Catania
Draw
Sorrento Calcio
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Catania
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Sorrento Calcio
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Catania
1–2–3
Sorrento Calcio
(6 last)
- Sorrento Calcio3-1Catania
- Catania0-0Sorrento Calcio
- Catania4-0Sorrento Calcio
- Sorrento Calcio0-0Catania
- Sorrento Calcio3-2Catania
- Catania0-1Sorrento Calcio
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Catania 1536 · Sorrento Calcio 1489
| Catania | Draw | Sorrento Calcio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 23% | 15% |
| Market | 61% | 24% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Catania (rating 1536 vs 1489).
- H2H favours Sorrento Calcio: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Catania | Sorrento Calcio | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.9 | 2.2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Catania 1–2–3 Sorrento Calcio
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Italy Serie C Group C | Sorrento Calcio | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Catania |
| 20/09/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Catania | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sorrento Calcio |
| 22/12/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Catania | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Sorrento Calcio |
| 24/08/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Sorrento Calcio | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Catania |
| 21/04/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Sorrento Calcio | 3-2 HT 0-0 | Catania |
| 18/12/23 Italy Serie C Group C | Catania | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sorrento Calcio |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 29 |
| 2 | Bari | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Audace Cerignola | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Sorrento Calcio | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 20 |
| 5 | Inter Milan U23 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 20 |
| 6 | Casertana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 20 |
| 7 | Catania | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 13 | 19 |
| 8 | Monopoli | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 19 |
| 9 | AZ Picerno ASD | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 18 |
| 10 | Scafatese | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 18 |
| 11 | Giugliano | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 29 | 16 |
| 12 | Cavese | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 15 |
| 13 | Salernitana | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 15 |
| 14 | Foggia | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 15 |
| 15 | Casarano | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 15 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 15 |
| 17 | Barletta | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 18 | AC Savoia 1908 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 12 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 9 |
| 20 | Crotone | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Catania | Sorrento Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| Giugliano | 6-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Team Altamura | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Casertana | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| AZ Picerno ASD | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Scafatese | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Catania (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Catania
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 25/10 | Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C |
3-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 11/10 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 03/10 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 27/09 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Barletta Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 15/09 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
3-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 07/09 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Sorrento Calcio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 24/10 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 18/10 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 11/10 | Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C |
0-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/10 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | Foggia Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Bari Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 15/09 | Cavese Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Catania vs Sorrento Calcio?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Catania win (61%). Probabilities: Catania 61%, draw 24%, Sorrento Calcio 15%.
How many goals are expected in Catania vs Sorrento Calcio?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Catania 1.95 · Sorrento Calcio 0.89), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Catania vs Sorrento Calcio?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.