Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Cavese vs Crotone

Team pages: Cavese · Crotone

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Cavese1.62

Crotone1.26

1X2

44% 27% 28%

Cavese Draw Crotone

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cavese 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWDWLLD

Crotone 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLDWLLDLLL

Head-to-head

Cavese 2–1–1 Crotone (4 last)

Crotone2-0Cavese
Cavese1-0Crotone
Crotone1-1Cavese
Cavese2-1Crotone

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cavese 1477 · Crotone 1445

	Cavese	Draw	Crotone
Our model	45%	27%	29%
Market	44%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cavese: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cavese	Crotone
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.4	1.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +6’	2.05	3.20	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cavese 2–1–1 Crotone

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/03/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Crotone	2-0 HT 1-0	Cavese
25/10/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Cavese	1-0 HT 1-0	Crotone
04/01/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Crotone	1-1 HT 1-1	Cavese
02/09/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Cavese	2-1 HT 1-1	Crotone

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	13	10	2	1	35	18	32
2	Bari	13	6	5	2	16	9	23
3	Catania	13	7	1	5	26	13	22
4	Scafatese	13	5	6	2	22	17	21
5	Audace Cerignola	13	6	2	5	20	15	20
6	Monopoli	13	5	5	3	13	9	20
7	Inter Milan U23	13	6	2	5	22	20	20
8	Casertana	13	5	5	3	17	15	20
9	Sorrento Calcio	13	6	2	5	16	15	20
10	AZ Picerno ASD	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
11	Cavese	13	4	4	5	23	22	16
12	Team Altamura	13	4	4	5	13	19	16
13	Giugliano	13	5	1	7	17	29	16
14	Salernitana	13	3	6	4	15	17	15
15	Barletta	13	3	6	4	14	16	15
16	Foggia	13	4	3	6	13	16	15
17	Casarano	13	4	3	6	15	21	15
18	AC Savoia 1908	13	2	6	5	14	21	12
19	Cosenza	13	2	4	7	10	23	10
20	Crotone	13	1	4	8	12	21	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cavese	Crotone
Casarano	5-2 W	0-1 L
AC Savoia 1908	4-2 W	1-1 D
Potenza	2-4 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cavese (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cavese

DLLWWDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/11	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
31/10	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	1-2	5	4	L
25/10	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
18/10	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	2-2	5-2	2	6	W
12/10	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
03/10	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
26/09	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	4-2	3	2	W
20/09	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	2-4	4	3	L
15/09	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	2-3	2	6	L
12/09	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

Crotone

DLDWLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
01/11	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-4	7	5	L
26/10	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
18/10	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
10/10	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	1-3	2-3	8	9	L
03/10	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
26/09	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
20/09	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-2	3	2	D
15/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
12/09	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cavese vs Crotone?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cavese win (44%). Probabilities: Cavese 44%, draw 27%, Crotone 28%.

How many goals are expected in Cavese vs Crotone?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Cavese 1.62 · Crotone 1.26), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cavese vs Crotone?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.