Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Salernitana vs Catania

Team pages: Salernitana · Catania

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Salernitana1.11

Catania1.31

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Salernitana Draw Catania

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Salernitana 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDDLDL

Catania 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWLWLW

Head-to-head

Salernitana 0–1–1 Catania (2 last)

Salernitana0-0Catania
Catania2-0Salernitana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Salernitana 1491 · Catania 1545

	Salernitana	Draw	Catania
Our model	30%	30%	40%
Market	31%	28%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Catania (rating 1491 vs 1545).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Salernitana	Catania
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	2.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:55 +15’	2.90	3.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Salernitana 0–1–1 Catania

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Salernitana	0-0 HT 0-0	Catania
19/10/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Catania	2-0 HT 1-0	Salernitana

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	13	10	2	1	35	18	32
2	Bari	13	6	5	2	16	9	23
3	Catania	13	7	1	5	26	13	22
4	Scafatese	13	5	6	2	22	17	21
5	Audace Cerignola	13	6	2	5	20	15	20
6	Monopoli	13	5	5	3	13	9	20
7	Inter Milan U23	13	6	2	5	22	20	20
8	Casertana	13	5	5	3	17	15	20
9	Sorrento Calcio	13	6	2	5	16	15	20
10	AZ Picerno ASD	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
11	Cavese	13	4	4	5	23	22	16
12	Team Altamura	13	4	4	5	13	19	16
13	Giugliano	13	5	1	7	17	29	16
14	Salernitana	13	3	6	4	15	17	15
15	Barletta	13	3	6	4	14	16	15
16	Foggia	13	4	3	6	13	16	15
17	Casarano	13	4	3	6	15	21	15
18	AC Savoia 1908	13	2	6	5	14	21	12
19	Cosenza	13	2	4	7	10	23	10
20	Crotone	13	1	4	8	12	21	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Salernitana	Catania
AZ Picerno ASD	0-3 L	4-2 W
Scafatese	2-2 D	1-2 L
Crotone	1-2 L	2-1 W
Giugliano	1-0 W	6-0 W
Barletta	1-1 D	0-0 D
Potenza	4-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Catania (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Salernitana

WDWLWDDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
01/11	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
26/10	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-3	5	6	L
17/10	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-2	8	4	D
11/10	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
04/10	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-1	9	5	W
26/09	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	1-2	11	6	L
19/09	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	12	4	W
15/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	5	2	D
11/09	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	3-1	4-2	3	5	W

Catania

LWDWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-0	6	4	W
31/10	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
25/10	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	3-0	6-0	3	2	W
17/10	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
11/10	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
03/10	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
27/09	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-1	8	5	W
19/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
15/09	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	3-0	4-2	4	3	W
12/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	7	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Salernitana vs Catania?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Catania win (40%). Probabilities: Salernitana 31%, draw 29%, Catania 40%.

How many goals are expected in Salernitana vs Catania?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Salernitana 1.11 · Catania 1.31), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Catania?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.