Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 16/11, 20:30

Prediction: Sorrento Calcio vs Monopoli

Team pages: Sorrento Calcio · Monopoli

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2Total

Sorrento Calcio1.01

Monopoli0.99

1X2

34% 32% 33%

Sorrento Calcio Draw Monopoli

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 61% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sorrento Calcio 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLDDLL

Monopoli 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLWWDD

Head-to-head

Sorrento Calcio 2–1–3 Monopoli (6 last)

Monopoli1-0Sorrento Calcio
Sorrento Calcio0-0Monopoli
Sorrento Calcio1-2Monopoli
Monopoli0-1Sorrento Calcio
Monopoli1-0Sorrento Calcio
Sorrento Calcio2-0Monopoli

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sorrento Calcio 1452 · Monopoli 1545

	Sorrento Calcio	Draw	Monopoli
Our model	34%	34%	33%
Market	35%	31%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monopoli (rating 1452 vs 1545).
H2H favours Monopoli: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sorrento Calcio	Monopoli
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.9	1.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X2.90

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:52 +19’	2.55	2.90	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sorrento Calcio 2–1–3 Monopoli

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Monopoli	1-0 HT 0-0	Sorrento Calcio
05/10/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	0-0 HT 0-0	Monopoli
05/01/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	1-2 HT 0-1	Monopoli
31/08/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Monopoli	0-1 HT 0-1	Sorrento Calcio
30/03/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Monopoli	1-0 HT 1-0	Sorrento Calcio
26/11/23 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	2-0 HT 0-0	Monopoli

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	13	10	2	1	35	18	32
2	Bari	13	6	5	2	16	9	23
3	Catania	13	7	1	5	26	13	22
4	Scafatese	13	5	6	2	22	17	21
5	Audace Cerignola	13	6	2	5	20	15	20
6	Monopoli	13	5	5	3	13	9	20
7	Inter Milan U23	13	6	2	5	22	20	20
8	Casertana	13	5	5	3	17	15	20
9	Sorrento Calcio	13	6	2	5	16	15	20
10	AZ Picerno ASD	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
11	Cavese	13	4	4	5	23	22	16
12	Team Altamura	13	4	4	5	13	19	16
13	Giugliano	13	5	1	7	17	29	16
14	Salernitana	13	3	6	4	15	17	15
15	Barletta	13	3	6	4	14	16	15
16	Foggia	13	4	3	6	13	16	15
17	Casarano	13	4	3	6	15	21	15
18	AC Savoia 1908	13	2	6	5	14	21	12
19	Cosenza	13	2	4	7	10	23	10
20	Crotone	13	1	4	8	12	21	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sorrento Calcio	Monopoli
Inter Milan U23	1-1 D	4-2 W
Casertana	0-0 D	1-3 L
Scafatese	2-3 L	0-0 D
Casarano	2-0 W	1-0 W
Foggia	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Monopoli (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sorrento Calcio

WWLLWLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	0-2	2	4	L
31/10	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-2	5	9	L
24/10	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
18/10	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
11/10	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-3	2-3	5	2	L
03/10	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/09	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
19/09	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	0	3	L
15/09	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	3-2	6	6	W
12/09	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	2	1	W

Monopoli

WDDWDLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
31/10	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
25/10	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
17/10	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	4-2	2	1	W
10/10	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	1-3	5	4	L
03/10	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
27/09	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
20/09	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
15/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
12/09	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sorrento Calcio vs Monopoli?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sorrento Calcio win (34%). Probabilities: Sorrento Calcio 34%, draw 32%, Monopoli 33%.

How many goals are expected in Sorrento Calcio vs Monopoli?

The model expects 2 goals (Sorrento Calcio 1.01 · Monopoli 0.99), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sorrento Calcio vs Monopoli?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.