Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 15/11, 17:30

Prediction: Cosenza vs Casertana

Team pages: Cosenza · Casertana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Cosenza1.08

Casertana1.17

1X2

33% 30% 37%

Cosenza Draw Casertana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Cosenza 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLLWLDWD

Casertana 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWDDLW

Head-to-head

Cosenza 1–3–2 Casertana (6 last)

Cosenza3-1Casertana
Casertana1-1Cosenza
Cosenza1-1Casertana
Casertana1-0Cosenza
Cosenza0-3Casertana
Casertana1-1Cosenza

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cosenza 1481 · Casertana 1500

	Cosenza	Draw	Casertana
Our model	32%	31%	37%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Casertana: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cosenza	Casertana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.4	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.9	3.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +21’	2.70	3.10	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cosenza 1–3–2 Casertana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Cosenza	3-1 HT 0-1	Casertana
20/09/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	1-1 HT 1-0	Cosenza
15/05/18 Italy Serie C Play-Offs	Cosenza	1-1 HT 1-1	Casertana
25/02/18 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	1-0 HT 1-0	Cosenza
06/10/17 Italy Serie C Group C	Cosenza	0-3 HT 0-2	Casertana
26/03/17 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	1-1 HT 1-0	Cosenza

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	13	10	2	1	35	18	32
2	Bari	13	6	5	2	16	9	23
3	Catania	13	7	1	5	26	13	22
4	Scafatese	13	5	6	2	22	17	21
5	Audace Cerignola	13	6	2	5	20	15	20
6	Monopoli	13	5	5	3	13	9	20
7	Inter Milan U23	13	6	2	5	22	20	20
8	Casertana	13	5	5	3	17	15	20
9	Sorrento Calcio	13	6	2	5	16	15	20
10	AZ Picerno ASD	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
11	Cavese	13	4	4	5	23	22	16
12	Team Altamura	13	4	4	5	13	19	16
13	Giugliano	13	5	1	7	17	29	16
14	Salernitana	13	3	6	4	15	17	15
15	Barletta	13	3	6	4	14	16	15
16	Foggia	13	4	3	6	13	16	15
17	Casarano	13	4	3	6	15	21	15
18	AC Savoia 1908	13	2	6	5	14	21	12
19	Cosenza	13	2	4	7	10	23	10
20	Crotone	13	1	4	8	12	21	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cosenza	Casertana
Monopoli	0-0 D	3-1 W
Inter Milan U23	1-0 W	3-2 W
Team Altamura	1-3 L	1-0 W
Bari	0-1 L	1-1 D
Giugliano	2-5 L	0-1 L
Cavese	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Casertana (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cosenza

DLDLLWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
01/11	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	9	2	W
24/10	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
18/10	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-3	5	5	L
12/10	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
04/10	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
26/09	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
19/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
15/09	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	1-2	2-5	4	7	L
12/09	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Casertana

WWDLLWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
31/10	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
23/10	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
18/10	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
10/10	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
03/10	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
27/09	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
19/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
15/09	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cosenza vs Casertana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Casertana win (37%). Probabilities: Cosenza 33%, draw 30%, Casertana 37%.

How many goals are expected in Cosenza vs Casertana?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Cosenza 1.08 · Casertana 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Casertana?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.