Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 15/11, 14:30

Prediction: Potenza vs Scafatese

Team pages: Potenza · Scafatese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.55Total

Potenza2.24

Scafatese1.3

1X2

57% 23% 20%

Potenza Draw Scafatese

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Potenza 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWDWW

Scafatese 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWDWLDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Potenza 1592 · Scafatese 1548

	Potenza	Draw	Scafatese
Our model	58%	22%	21%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Potenza (rating 1592 vs 1548).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Potenza	Scafatese
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.6	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.2	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.60▼	Bet365 1.60
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	4.33 → 4.75▲	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +21’	1.67	3.50	4.33
17:02 +8’	1.60▼	3.60▲	4.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	13	10	2	1	35	18	32
2	Bari	13	6	5	2	16	9	23
3	Catania	13	7	1	5	26	13	22
4	Scafatese	13	5	6	2	22	17	21
5	Audace Cerignola	13	6	2	5	20	15	20
6	Monopoli	13	5	5	3	13	9	20
7	Inter Milan U23	13	6	2	5	22	20	20
8	Casertana	13	5	5	3	17	15	20
9	Sorrento Calcio	13	6	2	5	16	15	20
10	AZ Picerno ASD	13	6	1	6	23	20	19
11	Cavese	13	4	4	5	23	22	16
12	Team Altamura	13	4	4	5	13	19	16
13	Giugliano	13	5	1	7	17	29	16
14	Salernitana	13	3	6	4	15	17	15
15	Barletta	13	3	6	4	14	16	15
16	Foggia	13	4	3	6	13	16	15
17	Casarano	13	4	3	6	15	21	15
18	AC Savoia 1908	13	2	6	5	14	21	12
19	Cosenza	13	2	4	7	10	23	10
20	Crotone	13	1	4	8	12	21	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Potenza	Scafatese
Team Altamura	2-2 D	2-0 W
Catania	2-1 W	2-1 W
Barletta	4-1 W	1-0 W
Bari	0-0 D	1-1 D
Salernitana	2-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Scafatese (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Potenza

LDWWWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-1	7	2	W
01/11	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	4-2	8	5	W
23/10	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
17/10	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-1	5	9	W
11/10	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-1	1	4	W
04/10	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	4-2	5	2	W
27/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	4-1	3	3	W
20/09	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	4-2	3	3	W
15/09	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
11/09	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	1-3	2-4	3	5	L

Scafatese

WDDWWDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	4-1	6	1	W
31/10	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
27/10	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
24/10	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/10	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
11/10	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	3-0	3-2	3	2	W
27/09	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/09	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
15/09	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
12/09	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-1	5	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Potenza vs Scafatese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Potenza win (57%). Probabilities: Potenza 57%, draw 23%, Scafatese 20%.

How many goals are expected in Potenza vs Scafatese?

The model expects 3.55 goals (Potenza 2.24 · Scafatese 1.3), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Potenza vs Scafatese?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.