Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 07/11, 14:30

Prediction: Crotone vs Giugliano

Team pages: Crotone · Giugliano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Crotone1.64

Giugliano1.12

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Crotone Draw Giugliano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Crotone 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Giugliano 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Crotone 4–2 Giugliano (6 last)

Giugliano1-0Crotone
Crotone1-0Giugliano
Crotone3-2Giugliano
Giugliano1-3Crotone
Crotone2-3Giugliano
Giugliano1-2Crotone

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crotone 1450 · Giugliano 1469

	Crotone	Draw	Giugliano
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Crotone: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crotone	Giugliano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	1 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.30

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +2’	1.85	3.30	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Crotone 4–0–2 Giugliano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Giugliano	1-0 HT 0-0	Crotone
29/11/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Crotone	1-0 HT 0-0	Giugliano
09/03/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Crotone	3-2 HT 2-1	Giugliano
27/10/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Giugliano	1-3 HT 1-3	Crotone
02/03/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Crotone	2-3 HT 2-0	Giugliano
25/10/23 Italy Serie C Group C	Giugliano	1-2 HT 1-1	Crotone

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	12	9	2	1	32	17	29
2	Bari	12	6	4	2	15	8	22
3	Audace Cerignola	12	6	2	4	19	11	20
4	Sorrento Calcio	12	6	2	4	16	13	20
5	Catania	12	6	1	5	24	13	19
6	Monopoli	12	5	4	3	13	9	19
7	AZ Picerno ASD	12	6	0	6	22	19	18
8	Scafatese	12	4	6	2	18	16	18
9	Inter Milan U23	12	5	2	5	21	20	17
10	Casertana	12	4	5	3	16	15	17
11	Cavese	12	4	3	5	21	20	15
12	Salernitana	12	3	6	3	15	16	15
13	Foggia	12	4	3	5	13	15	15
14	Casarano	12	4	3	5	15	20	15
15	Team Altamura	12	4	3	5	11	17	15
16	Giugliano	12	4	1	7	16	29	13
17	Barletta	12	2	6	4	13	16	12
18	AC Savoia 1908	12	2	6	4	13	18	12
19	Cosenza	12	2	3	7	10	23	9
20	Crotone	12	1	4	7	12	20	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crotone	Giugliano
Bari	0-0 D	0-2 L
Audace Cerignola	2-3 L	0-4 L
Catania	1-2 L	0-6 L
Salernitana	2-1 W	0-1 L
Inter Milan U23	0-2 L	0-4 L
Barletta	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Crotone (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crotone

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-4	7	5	L
26/10	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
18/10	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
10/10	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	1-3	2-3	8	9	L
03/10	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
26/09	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
20/09	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-2	3	2	D
15/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
12/09	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
05/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	2-2	5	1	D

Giugliano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
25/10	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-3	0-6	5	2	L
19/10	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
13/10	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-4	4	4	L
10/10	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
03/10	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
19/09	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
15/09	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	5-2	1	7	W
11/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	0-4	4	6	L
05/09	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	0-2	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crotone vs Giugliano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Crotone win (48%). Probabilities: Crotone 48%, draw 27%, Giugliano 25%.

How many goals are expected in Crotone vs Giugliano?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Crotone 1.64 · Giugliano 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Crotone vs Giugliano?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.