Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 09/11, 20:45
Prediction: AZ Picerno ASD vs Bari
Team pages: AZ Picerno ASD · Bari
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.3Total
AZ Picerno ASD1.05
Bari1.25
1X2
AZ Picerno ASD
Draw
Bari
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
AZ Picerno ASD
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Bari
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AZ Picerno ASD
0–1–5
Bari
(6 last)
- Bari1-1AZ Picerno ASD
- Bari3-0AZ Picerno ASD
- Bari1-0AZ Picerno ASD
- AZ Picerno ASD0-1Bari
- Bari3-0AZ Picerno ASD
- AZ Picerno ASD0-1Bari
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AZ Picerno ASD 1483 · Bari 1534
| AZ Picerno ASD | Draw | Bari | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 31% | 40% |
| Market | 30% | 31% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bari (rating 1483 vs 1534).
- H2H favours Bari: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AZ Picerno ASD | Bari | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.7 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.8 | 2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.4 | 3.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ Picerno ASD 0–1–5 Bari
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/26 Italy Serie C Cup | Bari | 1-1 HT 1-1 | AZ Picerno ASD |
| 09/08/25 Europe Friendlies | Bari | 3-0 HT 2-0 | AZ Picerno ASD |
| 22/02/22 Italy Serie C Group C | Bari | 1-0 HT 0-0 | AZ Picerno ASD |
| 12/09/21 Italy Serie C Group C | AZ Picerno ASD | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bari |
| 16/02/20 Italy Serie C Group C | Bari | 3-0 HT 2-0 | AZ Picerno ASD |
| 28/09/19 Italy Serie C Group C | AZ Picerno ASD | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Bari |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 29 |
| 2 | Bari | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 22 |
| 3 | Scafatese | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 17 | 21 |
| 4 | Audace Cerignola | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 20 |
| 5 | Sorrento Calcio | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | Inter Milan U23 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 20 | 20 |
| 7 | Casertana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 20 |
| 8 | Catania | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 13 | 19 |
| 9 | Monopoli | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 19 |
| 10 | AZ Picerno ASD | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 19 | 18 |
| 11 | Giugliano | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 29 | 16 |
| 12 | Cavese | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 20 | 15 |
| 13 | Salernitana | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 15 |
| 14 | Foggia | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 15 |
| 15 | Casarano | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 15 |
| 16 | Team Altamura | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 15 |
| 17 | Barletta | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| 18 | AC Savoia 1908 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 18 | 12 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 9 |
| 20 | Crotone | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AZ Picerno ASD | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| Salernitana | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Cosenza | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Potenza | 2-4 L | 0-0 D |
| Team Altamura | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Sorrento Calcio | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Bari (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AZ Picerno ASD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Cavese Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 26/10 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 18/10 | Barletta Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 12/10 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 04/10 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 19/09 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 15/09 | Catania Italy Serie C Group C |
0-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 07/09 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
Bari
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 23/10 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 18/10 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 04/10 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 26/09 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 19/09 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 15/09 | Potenza Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 11/09 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AZ Picerno ASD vs Bari?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bari win (40%). Probabilities: AZ Picerno ASD 30%, draw 31%, Bari 40%.
How many goals are expected in AZ Picerno ASD vs Bari?
The model expects 2.3 goals (AZ Picerno ASD 1.05 · Bari 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in AZ Picerno ASD vs Bari?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.