Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 25/10, 02:00

Prediction: AD Grecia vs AD Cofutpa

Team pages: AD Grecia · AD Cofutpa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

AD Grecia1.71

AD Cofutpa0.83

1X2

58% 25% 17%

AD Grecia Draw AD Cofutpa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Grecia 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDLWDL

AD Cofutpa 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLLWLW

Head-to-head

AD Grecia 3–3–0 AD Cofutpa (6 last)

AD Cofutpa0-0AD Grecia
AD Grecia1-1AD Cofutpa
AD Cofutpa0-2AD Grecia
AD Cofutpa0-2AD Grecia
AD Grecia5-3AD Cofutpa
AD Grecia1-1AD Cofutpa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Grecia 1526 · AD Cofutpa 1431

	AD Grecia	Draw	AD Cofutpa
Our model	57%	26%	17%
Market	58%	24%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Grecia (rating 1526 vs 1431).
H2H favours AD Grecia: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Grecia	AD Cofutpa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/22/33%	0/63/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.4	1.3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	5.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.53

X3.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.37
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 6.89 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +12’	1.53	3.75	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:29 +34’	1.33	4.37	6.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Grecia 3–3–0 AD Cofutpa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/09/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Cofutpa	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Grecia
26/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Grecia	1-1 HT 0-1	AD Cofutpa
13/02/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Cofutpa	0-2 HT 0-1	AD Grecia
30/10/25 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Cofutpa	0-2 HT 0-2	AD Grecia
13/09/25 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Grecia	5-3 HT 3-2	AD Cofutpa
08/04/25 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Grecia	1-1 HT 1-0	AD Cofutpa

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ADR Jicaral	10	7	3	0	18	5	24
2	Quepos Cambute FC	11	6	1	4	15	9	19
3	AD Rosario	10	5	2	3	15	13	17
4	AD Grecia	10	4	3	3	11	10	15
5	AD Sarchi	10	4	2	4	11	13	14
6	AD Cofutpa	10	2	1	7	9	17	7
7	PFA Santa Cruz	11	2	0	9	12	24	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Grecia	AD Cofutpa
AD Sarchi	0-2 L	1-2 L
AD Rosario	2-2 D	1-2 L
PFA Santa Cruz	1-0 W	3-1 W
Quepos Cambute FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
ADR Jicaral	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: AD Cofutpa (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Grecia

WWLWDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	AD Sarchi Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
12/10	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-2	3	5	D
04/10	PFA Santa Cruz Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
27/09	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
13/09	ADR Jicaral Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
08/09	AD Cofutpa Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
30/08	AD Sarchi Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
24/08	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-3	2	1	L
16/08	PFA Santa Cruz Costa Rica Segunda	–	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	2-0	2-0	1	6	W

AD Cofutpa

LLLLDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	2	9	W
04/10	ADR Jicaral Costa Rica Segunda	0-2	1-3	2	6	L
27/09	PFA Santa Cruz Costa Rica Segunda	–	3-1	–	–	W
19/09	AD Sarchi Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
13/09	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	1-2	6	8	L
08/09	AD Grecia Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
30/08	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
17/08	ADR Jicaral Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
09/08	PFA Santa Cruz Costa Rica Segunda	–	1-3	–	–	L
02/08	AD Sarchi Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Grecia vs AD Cofutpa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Grecia win (58%). Probabilities: AD Grecia 58%, draw 25%, AD Cofutpa 17%.

How many goals are expected in AD Grecia vs AD Cofutpa?

The model expects 2.54 goals (AD Grecia 1.71 · AD Cofutpa 0.83), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Grecia vs AD Cofutpa?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.