Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 01/11, 20:00

Prediction: Cariari Pococi vs AD Carmelita

Team pages: Cariari Pococi · AD Carmelita

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Cariari Pococi1.39

AD Carmelita1.04

1X2

44% 28% 27%

Cariari Pococi Draw AD Carmelita

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Cariari Pococi 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLLWLW

AD Carmelita 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWWLDL

Head-to-head

Cariari Pococi 1–4–1 AD Carmelita (6 last)

AD Carmelita1-1Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi2-1AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita1-1Cariari Pococi
AD Carmelita1-1Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi0-2AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita1-1Cariari Pococi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cariari Pococi 1508 · AD Carmelita 1493

	Cariari Pococi	Draw	AD Carmelita
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cariari Pococi	AD Carmelita
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.30

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:24 +21’	2.00	3.30	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cariari Pococi 1–4–1 AD Carmelita

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/09/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	1-1 HT 0-0	Cariari Pococi
12/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	Cariari Pococi	2-1 HT 0-1	AD Carmelita
23/01/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	1-1 HT 0-0	Cariari Pococi
11/10/25 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	1-1 HT 0-0	Cariari Pococi
01/10/25 Costa Rica Cup	Cariari Pococi	0-2 HT 0-0	AD Carmelita
24/09/25 Costa Rica Cup	AD Carmelita	1-1 HT 0-0	Cariari Pococi

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santa Ana	13	9	0	4	22	14	27
2	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	13	6	5	2	23	18	23
3	Cariari Pococi	13	5	4	4	14	13	19
4	Guadalupe FC	13	5	3	5	18	20	18
5	AD Carmelita	13	4	4	5	21	16	16
6	FC Moravia	13	5	1	7	17	15	16
7	FC Aserri	13	4	4	5	14	16	16
8	CS Uruguay de Coronado	13	2	3	8	10	27	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cariari Pococi	AD Carmelita
FC Aserri	2-1 W	1-1 D
Guadalupe FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
FC Moravia	1-0 W	3-0 W
Santa Ana	0-1 L	1-0 W
CS Uruguay de Coronado	1-1 D	6-0 W
Pitbulls Santa Barbara	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cariari Pococi

DDLWDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
17/10	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
11/10	FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
04/10	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
02/10	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	8	6	L
29/09	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	9	D
24/09	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-1	6	8	W
22/09	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
14/09	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
06/09	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-1	13	0	D

AD Carmelita

WLLDWWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-2	5	2	L
18/10	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
10/10	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-2	0-2	4	10	L
02/10	FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	3-0	4	7	W
26/09	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
19/09	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	2-0	6-0	5	6	W
14/09	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
07/09	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	9	9	L
28/08	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-2	6	3	L
25/08	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cariari Pococi vs AD Carmelita?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cariari Pococi win (44%). Probabilities: Cariari Pococi 44%, draw 28%, AD Carmelita 27%.

How many goals are expected in Cariari Pococi vs AD Carmelita?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Cariari Pococi 1.39 · AD Carmelita 1.04), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Cariari Pococi vs AD Carmelita?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.