Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 01/11, 20:00

Prediction: AD Sarchi vs PFA Santa Cruz

Team pages: AD Sarchi · PFA Santa Cruz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

AD Sarchi1.94

PFA Santa Cruz0.86

1X2

62% 23% 15%

AD Sarchi Draw PFA Santa Cruz

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AD Sarchi 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWLLWW

PFA Santa Cruz 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

AD Sarchi 3–1–2 PFA Santa Cruz (6 last)

PFA Santa Cruz4-0AD Sarchi
PFA Santa Cruz2-0AD Sarchi
AD Sarchi1-0PFA Santa Cruz
AD Sarchi2-0PFA Santa Cruz
PFA Santa Cruz0-0AD Sarchi
AD Sarchi4-1PFA Santa Cruz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Sarchi 1509 · PFA Santa Cruz 1425

	AD Sarchi	Draw	PFA Santa Cruz
Our model	62%	23%	15%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AD Sarchi (rating 1509 vs 1425).
H2H favours AD Sarchi: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AD Sarchi	PFA Santa Cruz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	0 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	0/17/83%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.9	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.6 / 0.4	6.3 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:40 +4’	1.44	4.00	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Sarchi 3–1–2 PFA Santa Cruz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 Costa Rica Segunda	PFA Santa Cruz	4-0	AD Sarchi
26/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	PFA Santa Cruz	2-0	AD Sarchi
11/02/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Sarchi	1-0 HT 0-0	PFA Santa Cruz
29/10/25 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Sarchi	2-0	PFA Santa Cruz
14/09/25 Costa Rica Segunda	PFA Santa Cruz	0-0 HT 0-0	AD Sarchi
06/03/24 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Sarchi	4-1 HT 2-1	PFA Santa Cruz

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ADR Jicaral	11	8	3	0	20	5	27
2	Quepos Cambute FC	12	6	1	5	15	11	19
3	AD Grecia	11	5	3	3	13	11	18
4	AD Rosario	11	5	2	4	16	16	17
5	AD Sarchi	11	5	2	4	14	14	17
6	AD Cofutpa	11	2	1	8	10	19	7
7	PFA Santa Cruz	11	2	0	9	12	24	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AD Sarchi	PFA Santa Cruz
AD Rosario	3-1 W	1-2 L
AD Grecia	2-0 W	0-1 L
Quepos Cambute FC	1-2 L	0-2 L
ADR Jicaral	0-1 L	0-3 L
AD Cofutpa	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: AD Sarchi (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Sarchi

DDLWLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	3-1	7	10	W
18/10	AD Grecia Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
11/10	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
27/09	ADR Jicaral Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
19/09	AD Cofutpa Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-1	11	6	W
13/09	PFA Santa Cruz Costa Rica Segunda	–	0-4	–	–	L
06/09	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
30/08	AD Grecia Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
23/08	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	1-1	16	9	D
09/08	ADR Jicaral Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	4	4	D

PFA Santa Cruz

WLLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	6	8	L
11/10	ADR Jicaral Costa Rica Segunda	0-2	0-3	6	8	L
04/10	AD Grecia Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
27/09	AD Cofutpa Costa Rica Segunda	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-2	6	7	L
13/09	AD Sarchi Costa Rica Segunda	–	4-0	–	–	W
30/08	AD Rosario Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
23/08	ADR Jicaral Costa Rica Segunda	0-3	1-4	2	4	L
16/08	AD Grecia Costa Rica Segunda	–	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	AD Cofutpa Costa Rica Segunda	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Sarchi vs PFA Santa Cruz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AD Sarchi win (62%). Probabilities: AD Sarchi 62%, draw 23%, PFA Santa Cruz 15%.

How many goals are expected in AD Sarchi vs PFA Santa Cruz?

The model expects 2.8 goals (AD Sarchi 1.94 · PFA Santa Cruz 0.86), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Sarchi vs PFA Santa Cruz?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.