Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 21/08, 21:00

Prediction: Giugliano vs Scafatese

Team pages: Giugliano · Scafatese

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.23Total

Giugliano1.29

Scafatese0.94

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Giugliano Draw Scafatese

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Giugliano 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Scafatese 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Giugliano 0–1–0 Scafatese (1 last)

Scafatese1-1Giugliano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Giugliano 1475 · Scafatese 1585

	Giugliano	Draw	Scafatese
Our model	43%	31%	26%
Market	44%	30%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Scafatese (rating 1475 vs 1585).
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Giugliano	Scafatese
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	2.5 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	14/57/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.5	2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	1.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.00

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.05▼	Pinn 2.10
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.16 ★
2	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +17’	2.10	3.00	3.30
13:35 +6’	2.05▼	3.00	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:33 +7’	2.03	3.21	3.65
18:48 +4’	2.10▲	3.16▼	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Giugliano 0–1–0 Scafatese

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/25 Europe Friendlies	Scafatese	1-1 HT 0-0	Giugliano

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AC Savoia 1908	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sorrento Calcio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Audace Cerignola	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ Picerno ASD	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Foggia	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Casertana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Catania	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cavese	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cosenza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Crotone	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Giugliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Inter Milan U23	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Potenza	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Scafatese	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Barletta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Monopoli	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bari	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Casarano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Team Altamura	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Salernitana	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Giugliano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Cup	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
13/08	Ischia Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	10	0	L
26/04	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
19/04	Benevento Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
12/04	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-1	14	4	D
06/04	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
29/03	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
22/03	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
14/03	Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
08/03	Siracusa Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-2	5	2	L

Scafatese

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Salernitana Italy Serie C Cup	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
04/08	Teramo Club Friendly List	0-0	1-1	7	0	D
28/07	ASD Pineto Calcio Europe Friendlies	1-1	4-1	3	1	W
22/07	Avellino Club Friendly List	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
06/06	FC Vado Italy Serie D Play-Offs	–	6-0	–	–	W
31/05	Desenzano Italy Serie D	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
24/05	Desenzano Italy Serie D	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
17/05	Barletta Italy Serie D	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/05	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie D	1-1	4-1	9	0	W
03/05	Cynthialbalonga Italy Serie D	–	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Giugliano vs Scafatese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Giugliano win (44%). Probabilities: Giugliano 44%, draw 30%, Scafatese 26%.

How many goals are expected in Giugliano vs Scafatese?

The model expects 2.23 goals (Giugliano 1.29 · Scafatese 0.94), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Giugliano vs Scafatese?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.