Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 07/11, 14:30

Prediction: Casertana vs Casarano

Team pages: Casertana · Casarano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Casertana1.64

Casarano1.05

1X2

50% 27% 23%

Casertana Draw Casarano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Casertana 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLWDDL

Casarano 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLDLWD

Head-to-head

Casertana 1–3 Casarano (4 last)

Casarano3-2Casertana
Casertana0-3Casarano
Casarano3-2Casertana
Casertana1-0Casarano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Casertana 1489 · Casarano 1495

	Casertana	Draw	Casarano
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	50%	27%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Casarano: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Casertana	Casarano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.5	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:13 +2’	1.80	3.40	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Casertana 1–0–3 Casarano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Casarano	3-2 HT 1-1	Casertana
05/10/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	0-3 HT 0-0	Casarano
16/02/22 Italy Serie D	Casarano	3-2	Casertana
10/10/21 Italy Serie D	Casertana	1-0 HT 0-0	Casarano

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	12	9	2	1	32	17	29
2	Bari	12	6	4	2	15	8	22
3	Audace Cerignola	12	6	2	4	19	11	20
4	Sorrento Calcio	12	6	2	4	16	13	20
5	Catania	12	6	1	5	24	13	19
6	Monopoli	12	5	4	3	13	9	19
7	AZ Picerno ASD	12	6	0	6	22	19	18
8	Scafatese	12	4	6	2	18	16	18
9	Inter Milan U23	12	5	2	5	21	20	17
10	Casertana	12	4	5	3	16	15	17
11	Cavese	12	4	3	5	21	20	15
12	Salernitana	12	3	6	3	15	16	15
13	Foggia	12	4	3	5	13	15	15
14	Casarano	12	4	3	5	15	20	15
15	Team Altamura	12	4	3	5	11	17	15
16	Giugliano	12	4	1	7	16	29	13
17	Barletta	12	2	6	4	13	16	12
18	AC Savoia 1908	12	2	6	4	13	18	12
19	Cosenza	12	2	3	7	10	23	9
20	Crotone	12	1	4	7	12	20	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Casertana	Casarano
Bari	1-1 D	0-1 L
Sorrento Calcio	0-0 D	0-2 L
Monopoli	3-1 W	0-1 L
Cavese	0-2 L	2-5 L
Audace Cerignola	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Casertana (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Casertana

DWWDLLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
23/10	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
18/10	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
10/10	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
03/10	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
27/09	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
19/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
15/09	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-2	4	3	W
06/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-2	6	4	D

Casarano

LWWDLLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
26/10	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
18/10	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	2-2	2-5	7	6	L
11/10	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
03/10	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	11	2	L
27/09	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
19/09	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
15/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
11/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
05/09	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Casertana vs Casarano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Casertana win (50%). Probabilities: Casertana 50%, draw 27%, Casarano 23%.

How many goals are expected in Casertana vs Casarano?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Casertana 1.64 · Casarano 1.05), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Casertana vs Casarano?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.