Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 22/08, 21:00

Prediction: Lecco vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Team pages: Lecco · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Lecco1.44

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo1.05

1X2

45% 29% 26%

Lecco Draw ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lecco 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDWLWWDL

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Lecco 5–1 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (6 last)

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo0-1Lecco
Lecco5-1ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo2-0Lecco
Lecco3-2ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Lecco2-1ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
ASD Union Arzignanochiampo0-2Lecco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lecco 1472 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1594

	Lecco	Draw	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (rating 1472 vs 1594).
H2H favours Lecco: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lecco	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.3 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	2.9 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.18 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.54

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +3’	2.00	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:52 +2’	2.08	3.02	3.75
11:24 +2’	2.18▲	2.96▼	3.54▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lecco 5–0–1 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	0-1 HT 0-0	Lecco
02/11/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Lecco	5-1 HT 4-1	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
01/02/25 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	2-0 HT 1-0	Lecco
25/09/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Lecco	3-2 HT 0-2	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
26/02/23 Italy Serie C Group A	Lecco	2-1 HT 1-1	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
23/10/22 Italy Serie C Group A	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	0-2 HT 0-1	Lecco

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alcione Milano	1	1	0	3	1	3
1	Union Brescia	1	1	0	3	1	3
3	Trento	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	A.C. Ospitaletto	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cittadella	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Giana Erminio	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Desenzano	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Lecco	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Lumezzane	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Juventus U23	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Novara	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Pro Vercelli	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Treviso	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Albinoleffe	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	US Folgore Caratese	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	US Pergolettese	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	AC Carpi	1	0	1	1	3	0
19	Renate	1	0	1	1	3	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lecco	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
US Pergolettese	0-3 L	1-0 W
Lumezzane	2-2 D	1-0 W
Cittadella	1-2 L	1-0 W
Pro Patria	4-1 W	3-2 W
Novara	0-0 D	1-1 D
Renate	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: ASD Union Arzignanochiampo (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lecco

LLWDWLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
19/04	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-2	8	4	D
10/04	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
03/04	Vicenza Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
29/03	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
22/03	Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	4-1	6	2	W
15/03	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
07/03	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	0	1	W
03/03	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
28/02	Union Brescia Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	1-3	7	4	L

ASD Union Arzignanochiampo

DWLWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	Pro Vercelli Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
19/04	Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	3-2	3	3	W
12/04	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
03/04	Renate Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/03	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/03	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
14/03	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
07/03	Lecco Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
03/03	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
27/02	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lecco vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lecco win (45%). Probabilities: Lecco 45%, draw 29%, ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 26%.

How many goals are expected in Lecco vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Lecco 1.44 · ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 1.05), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Lecco vs ASD Union Arzignanochiampo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.