Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 13/09, 15:00

Prediction: Lecco vs Giana Erminio

Team pages: Lecco · Giana Erminio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

Lecco1.29

Giana Erminio0.79

1X2

47% 31% 22%

Lecco Draw Giana Erminio

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Lecco 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDLDLL

Giana Erminio 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWLLL

Head-to-head

Lecco 4–1–1 Giana Erminio (6 last)

Lecco2-1Giana Erminio
Giana Erminio0-1Lecco
Lecco0-0Giana Erminio
Lecco1-0Giana Erminio
Giana Erminio1-0Lecco
Lecco1-0Giana Erminio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lecco 1460 · Giana Erminio 1457

	Lecco	Draw	Giana Erminio
Our model	47%	31%	22%
Market	47%	31%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lecco: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lecco	Giana Erminio
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X2.90

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.98
X	3.10 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.23 ★
2	4.50 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:59	1.75	3.10	4.50
11:29 +1’	1.90▲	2.90▼	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:23 +45’	2.00	3.17	3.81
21:10 +8’	1.98▼	3.21▲	3.80▼
15:00 +21’	1.98	3.23▲	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lecco 4–1–1 Giana Erminio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/05/26 Italy Serie C Play-Offs	Lecco	2-1 HT 0-0	Giana Erminio
11/02/26 Italy Serie C Group A	Giana Erminio	0-1 HT 0-1	Lecco
28/09/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Lecco	0-0 HT 0-0	Giana Erminio
31/03/25 Italy Serie C Group A	Lecco	1-0 HT 1-0	Giana Erminio
16/11/24 Italy Serie C Group A	Giana Erminio	1-0 HT 1-0	Lecco
23/02/22 Italy Serie C Group A	Lecco	1-0 HT 1-0	Giana Erminio

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cittadella	3	3	0	0	5	1	9
1	Union Brescia	3	3	0	0	5	1	9
3	A.C. Ospitaletto	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
4	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi	3	2	1	0	4	2	7
5	Trento	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
6	Alcione Milano	3	1	2	0	4	2	5
7	Juventus U23	3	1	2	0	4	3	5
8	Novara	3	1	1	1	4	4	4
9	Treviso	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
9	Albinoleffe	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
11	Pro Vercelli	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
12	AC Carpi	3	1	1	1	5	6	4
13	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
14	Lumezzane	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
15	Desenzano	3	0	2	1	1	2	2
16	US Folgore Caratese	3	0	1	2	3	5	1
17	Lecco	3	0	1	2	0	2	1
18	US Pergolettese	3	0	1	2	0	3	1
19	Giana Erminio	3	0	0	3	2	5	0
20	Renate	3	0	0	3	2	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lecco	Giana Erminio
US Pergolettese	0-3 L	2-0 W
Lumezzane	2-2 D	0-1 L
Cittadella	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Giana Erminio (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lecco

DWLWWDLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Trento Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
31/08	Treviso Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
22/08	ASD Union Arzignanochiampo Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
25/04	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
19/04	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	2-1	2-2	8	4	D
10/04	Alcione Milano Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
03/04	Vicenza Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
29/03	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-2	4	6	L
22/03	Pro Patria Italy Serie C Group A	3-0	4-1	6	2	W
15/03	Novara Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Giana Erminio

WWLDLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	1-2	10	4	L
30/08	Lumezzane Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
22/08	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
25/04	Cittadella Italy Serie C Group A	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/04	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
11/04	Triestina Italy Serie C Group A	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
06/04	AC Dolomiti Bellunesi Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
28/03	A.C. Ospitaletto Italy Serie C Group A	1-1	2-3	2	1	L
21/03	US Pergolettese Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	2-0	0	4	W
14/03	Albinoleffe Italy Serie C Group A	1-0	1-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lecco vs Giana Erminio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lecco win (47%). Probabilities: Lecco 47%, draw 31%, Giana Erminio 22%.

How many goals are expected in Lecco vs Giana Erminio?

The model expects 2.09 goals (Lecco 1.29 · Giana Erminio 0.79), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Lecco vs Giana Erminio?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.