Football · Italy Serie C Group A · 20/09, 20:30

Prediction: Lecco vs US Pergolettese

Team pages: Lecco · US Pergolettese

Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.97Total
Lecco1.2
US Pergolettese0.77
1X2
46% 30% 24%
Lecco Draw US Pergolettese
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Lecco 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
LWWDLDLLWW
US Pergolettese 3-4-3 (W-D-L)
WLDDWLLDWD
Head-to-head
Lecco 3–1–2 US Pergolettese (6 last)
  • US Pergolettese3-0Lecco
  • Lecco1-0US Pergolettese
  • US Pergolettese0-0Lecco
  • Lecco1-0US Pergolettese
  • US Pergolettese4-2Lecco
  • Lecco2-0US Pergolettese
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lecco 1490 · US Pergolettese 1502
LeccoDrawUS Pergolettese
Our model45%33%23%
Market47%29%25%
Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Lecco: 3-1-2.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

LeccoUS Pergolettese
Goals for / against (FT)1.1 / 10.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)0.8 / 0.30.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)60/30/10%30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)1.6 / 3.51.1 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.8 / 0.24.1 / 0.3

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lecco 312 US Pergolettese

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DateHomeScoreAway
25/04/26
Italy Serie C Group A
US Pergolettese3-0
HT 2-0
Lecco
21/12/25
Italy Serie C Group A
Lecco1-0
HT 0-0
US Pergolettese
01/03/25
Italy Serie C Group A
US Pergolettese0-0
HT 0-0
Lecco
20/10/24
Italy Serie C Group A
Lecco1-0
HT 1-0
US Pergolettese
08/01/23
Italy Serie C Group A
US Pergolettese4-2
HT 0-2
Lecco
10/09/22
Italy Serie C Group A
Lecco2-0
HT 0-0
US Pergolettese

Standings · Italy Serie C Group A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Cittadella 5500 9215
2 A.C. Ospitaletto 5320 11411
3 Union Brescia 5320 7311
4 Alcione Milano 5230 969
5 Trento 5230 539
6 AC Dolomiti Bellunesi 5230 429
7 Treviso 5221 768
8 Lecco 5212 437
9 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo 5212 567
10 Pro Vercelli 5122 565
11 Novara 5122 455
11 Albinoleffe 5122 455
13 AC Carpi 5122 8105
14 Desenzano 5122 465
14 Lumezzane 5122 465
16 US Pergolettese 5122 135
17 Juventus U23 5122 485
18 US Folgore Caratese 5023 582
19 Renate 5023 482
20 Giana Erminio 5014 481

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentLeccoUS Pergolettese
Vicenza 2-0 W 0-0 D
Cittadella 1-2 L 0-2 L
Record vs common 1 W 0 D 1 L 0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lecco (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lecco

LWWDLDLLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
17/09 Desenzano
Italy Serie C Group A
2-0 3-1 74 W
13/09 Giana Erminio
Italy Serie C Group A
1-0 1-0 34 W
07/09 Trento
Italy Serie C Group A
0-0 0-1 02 L
31/08 Treviso
Italy Serie C Group A
0-0 0-1 36 L
22/08 ASD Union Arzignanochiampo
Italy Serie C Group A
0-0 0-0 64 D
25/04 US Pergolettese
Italy Serie C Group A
0-2 0-3 22 L
19/04 Lumezzane
Italy Serie C Group A
2-1 2-2 84 D
10/04 Alcione Milano
Italy Serie C Group A
1-0 2-0 16 W
03/04 Vicenza
Italy Serie C Group A
1-0 2-0 12 W
29/03 Cittadella
Italy Serie C Group A
1-0 1-2 46 L

US Pergolettese

WLDDWLLDWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
17/09 US Folgore Caratese
Italy Serie C Group A
0-0 0-0 25 D
13/09 Novara
Italy Serie C Group A
1-0 1-0 25 W
06/09 Juventus U23
Italy Serie C Group A
0-0 0-0 25 D
30/08 Union Brescia
Italy Serie C Group A
0-0 0-1 04 L
22/08 Cittadella
Italy Serie C Group A
0-1 0-2 24 L
25/04 Lecco
Italy Serie C Group A
2-0 3-0 32 W
19/04 Vicenza
Italy Serie C Group A
0-0 0-0 36 D
11/04 Virtus Verona
Italy Serie C Group A
0-2 2-2 23 D
06/04 Albinoleffe
Italy Serie C Group A
0-1 0-3 64 L
28/03 Pro Patria
Italy Serie C Group A
1-0 2-1 46 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lecco vs US Pergolettese?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lecco win (46%). Probabilities: Lecco 46%, draw 30%, US Pergolettese 24%.

How many goals are expected in Lecco vs US Pergolettese?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Lecco 1.2 · US Pergolettese 0.77), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lecco vs US Pergolettese?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.